Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Risk-off tone persists as Middle East headlines and Fed speakers drive markets. Dollar firms, oil holds highs, gold steady. Next catalysts: GDP revision and PCE data later this week.
The market prices 100 bps of additional RBNZ hikes. Rabobank warns the Kiwi could slide toward 0.6000 if the central bank sounds less hawkish this week.
Automotive output jumped 3.6% in May, driving German industrial production above expectations. Construction added 0.9%. The June PMI manufacturing print on July 24 will show if the trend holds.
GBP/EUR trades at €1.1686 as fading UK political risk outweighs German factory data. ECB rate decision Thursday and UK GDP Friday are the next catalysts for the pair.
The rupee opened 15 paise higher at 95.28 as the dollar index eased, giving emerging currencies breathing room. A strong US payrolls report on Friday could erase the gain and test recent lows.
WTI holds $66 support. OPEC+ supply increases and China demand slows. Brent tests $72-74 zone. Traders watch for breakout below $70 or above $80.
Renewed Hormuz missile strikes after a ceasefire expired, plus an 8.2% Samsung slide, dominated Asia FX. USD/JPY dropped under 162 as oil firmed modestly. The Fed minutes are next.
ECB's Schnabel says lower crude prices alone won't ease inflation as gas, refining margins stay elevated. Climate risks add pressure. Markets expect ECB to hold rates in July.
Yen pinned near 40-year low as dollar tests 160. Friday's PCE data is the next intervention trigger. The BOJ must decide whether to defend the line or let the yen slide further.
Household spending rose 3.7% m/m, far above expectations, while wage growth slowed to 3.2%. The mixed signals leave the BOJ's July rate decision hanging on next week's Tokyo CPI.
Japan's cash earnings likely stayed solid in May. Household spending probably fell for a sixth month. The split data leaves the BOJ path unclear for USD/JPY.
GBP/USD holds above 1.3350, EUR/GBP slips to 0.8550 after JPMorgan lifts 2026 targets on easing UK political risk. Next catalyst: BoE November meeting.
The Indian rupee slipped to a three-week low Monday, pressured by higher dollar demand from importers and corporates. Month-end buying and foreign outflows weighed on the currency.
Headline matches estimates at 54.0 but business activity, employment, and prices paid all fell in June. Dollar edges lower as services sector shows signs of deceleration.
The June composite PMI was revised lower to 51.9 from 52.2, signaling a slower expansion. Services growth moderated and price pressures eased. The dollar slipped.
Canada's services sector slipped back into contraction in June as the S&P Global PMI fell to 47.1 from 50.6, with weaker demand and rising uncertainty weighing on activity.
Crude settled near $68.00, erasing all war-era gains. The 67–68 support zone has held before. A bounce would target resistance at $79.20.
Sterling posted its best week in three months as Burnham committed to fiscal rules. The dollar had its worst week since April. The yen surged. FOMC minutes due.
The weak US jobs report has sent the dollar lower, pushing AUDUSD toward 0.7000. The FOMC minutes Wednesday will determine if the trend holds.
Dollar flat after US holiday weekend. Euro near $1.0840, yen weak at 157. JOLTS and ISM services data this week will test rate expectations.
May retail sales matched expectations at 0.2% mom, led by food spending. The fuel decline and wide regional dispersion keep the ECB on a data-dependent path for now.
Eurozone May PPI matched forecasts at +0.2% m/m, but core prices rose 0.7% as energy fell. The 2.8% annual core reading keeps pressure on the ECB.
GBP/EUR hit a one-year high at 1.1696 after UK politics stabilised. This week's UK CPI and eurozone PMI will decide if sterling holds or reverses.
The dollar fell to a two-week low after a soft US jobs report reduced Fed hike bets. Traders are now focused on Wednesday's CPI for the next direction.
China launched a nuclear-capable ICBM into the South Pacific after Australia and Fiji signed a defence pact. Japan protested. The yen saw modest safe-haven buying.
The dollar firmed across Asia as the Bank of Korea flagged leveraged ETF risks tied to Samsung and SK Hynix. USD/JPY tested 161.80. The US ISM services print is the next catalyst for the greenback.
ANZ's commodity index rose 0.7% in May, with wool surging 75% y/y and aluminium up 49% as Middle East conflict tightens supply. Dairy diverges sharply.
Anthropic is six weeks from a final investment decision on 1.4GW of Australian data centre capacity, with a $15bn construction price tag that would make it one of the largest AI infrastructure commitments globally.
Wang Yi met Investor AB's Jacob Wallenberg in Stockholm, urging closer EU-China business ties ahead of a leaders' summit where trade friction over EVs and market access will dominate.
Sterling climbed to $1.2770 after weak US payrolls data pushed the two-year yield down 12bps. Against the euro, the pound hit €0.8420, a 2026 high. UK GDP and US CPI are the week's next catalysts.