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One-year Origo expectations have edged higher but remain low ahead of Thursday's Riksbank decision. EUR/SEK above 11.00 as US retail sales miss shapes rate path.
China delayed July data to 0700 GMT, coinciding with the stock market close. Industrial output is seen slowing to 4.8% y/y, while retail sales may firm to 1.5% y/y. The timing shift could reduce market disruption.
July activity data due at 3pm Beijing Monday; weak credit numbers raise odds of PBOC easing; yuan strength, commodity risk in play.
July PPI miss and a 0.6% retail sales drop pulled September rate hike odds to 32%. Yen recouped some losses on BOJ hike chatter.
Yen rose 0.2% to 159.055 per dollar as traders repriced Fed rate hike odds to a 66.9% chance of a hold, ignoring Japan's weaker-than-expected GDP. BOJ still on track for September hike.
Singapore NODX rose 24.2% in July, extending above-20% growth to four months. AI-linked electronics demand drove the gain, officials said, after the government sharply raised its 2026 trade forecast last week.
Rightmove asking prices fell 2.0% in August, steepest since 2018; CIPD survey shows low-hire, low-fire pattern. Both reinforce BoE caution, weigh on sterling.
NZ services PMI held at 50.6 in July, but employment at 48.5 signals a fragile recovery that could keep the RBNZ cautious on rate moves ahead.
China moved its July economic data drop to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time, pushing the figures into the Asian afternoon and catching European markets at the open.
The dollar index touched 99.67 as July inflation and retail sales data dampened September rate hike odds. Traders now see a 33% chance of a Fed move. The August reports will decide the path for the remainder of 2026.
Dollar pinned near range floor after July payrolls miss, soft inflation, and weaker retail sales. Fed funds futures price just 8 bp of tightening for September. Euro, yuan, yen, sterling, loonie, Aussie, and peso data calendars ahead.
Dollar tests critical support at 99.41 after Fed rate hike odds for September collapse on soft inflation and jobs data. A break below opens the path to 97.93.
Trump said he will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory, threatening oil shipping. Brent crude jumped 2% and the dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand.
The loonie hit 72 U.S. cents as rate spreads narrowed and trade optimism grew. Monday's CPI print and the August 19 tariff deadline will test the rally.
Canada CPI Monday, U.S. tariffs Wednesday. Headline seen at 2.9%. Core near 2%. Tariffs hit 0.4% of GDP. Loonie faces two-way risks.
Canada's Q2 GDP surged 3.4% and July jobs quadrupled forecasts, pushing USD/CAD below 1.40. With oil flat and the BoC silent, the rally's driver remains contested.
Canadian factory sales beat estimates in June, rising for a fifth month, while Q2 output surged to a record $235.1 billion. Underlying volumes point to solid growth.
Markets now price roughly 100 bps of additional cuts ahead. The wider question is how quickly the Fed follows suit and whether the peso's carry premium holds.
July core and headline inflation matched forecasts, lifting CME FedWatch odds of a September hold to 64%. UK data and Fed minutes are next for cable.
WTI holds $81.60 support, Brent tests $86.67 as OPEC cuts demand outlook and Hormuz risks persist. Natural gas stays bearish below $2.80.
Oil edges higher after US threatens indefinite naval blockade of Iran. Gold slips, dollar fades, yen strengthens on intervention warning. Fed's Goolsbee sees inflation easing.
A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over Latvia hours after an air threat alert. Finland restricted traffic near Kotka. Russia downed 15 drones near St Petersburg. The cluster of events escalates regional tensions.
China's auto export surge has overwhelmed global car-carrier fleets, pushing charter rates to $70,000/day and forcing shipments in standard containers, executives said.
The RBA held rates at 4.35%, warning it would hike if inflation risks materialise. The July NAB survey showed confidence at minus 6, while US payrolls surprised to the downside at minus 23,000.
Latvia and Finland each issued fresh eastern-flank air alerts Thursday evening. Neither named a trigger. A confirmed intrusion would move EUR/USD.
New Zealand factory sector cooled, PMI 54.3 in July from June's 60.1, all five sub-indices above 50. Hiring is the softest sub-index. Firms are turning wary.
Copper futures held support at the 20-day moving average near $6.496, keeping a breakout above $6.867 viable. Targets above $6.946 are next if the rally resumes, according to Bruce.
Dollar is the second-weakest major currency Thursday after July PPI undershot, but the FX market looks indecisive. Brent has stalled around $90 as geopolitical news flow stops providing fresh reasons to extend the risk premium.
The dollar slipped against the loonie, sterling, and kiwi ahead of January PPI data. A hot print could revive rate-hike bets; a soft one would pressure the greenback.
USDJPY nears 160 as the dollar strengthens despite cooling U.S. inflation. BOJ rate-hike pressure builds after Japan PPI holds near a three-year high.