Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech Aug. 28 at 10 a.m. ET. Dollar, USD/JPY, gold and the Dow hinge on his inflation stance.
WTI crude fell more than 2% on Monday after traders booked profits ahead of possible new Iran sanctions. The break below an uptrend line lacks momentum confirmation, with $84.40 support next.
French consumer confidence missed expectations at 86 in August. Saving intentions hit a record high while spending plans fell, and inflation expectations surged 19 points.
Riksbank minutes at 9:30 CET will reveal whether the dovish policy statement was a consensus or a compromise. NOK/SEK broke above 1.02 for the first time in three years on Monday.
Germany's Q2 GDP was revised up to +0.3% q/q, with exports driving the beat. Domestic investment and consumption remain weak, and employment fell for the first time since the pandemic.
Finance Minister Katayama said the government will study tax incentives for retail JGB investors, a move that could boost demand for government debt. Long-end yields are under upward pressure. She reiterated Japan's stance on Hormuz.
Natural gas tested $2.89 resistance Monday and got sold off. A triangle pattern is compressing, with the 50-day moving average closing in. A break below $2.69 or above $2.95 sets the next leg.
WTI and Brent crude retreat after Bessent warns of U.S. sanctions on Iran trade partners. Natural gas holds steady near resistance as technical levels come into focus.
Dollar gets a breather after last week's decline, CAD holds contained despite collapsed Canada-US trade talks, and AUD waits on RBA minutes for rate path clarity.
Brent crude held near $93 a barrel as quiet Middle East headlines left traders without a catalyst to push prices out of a tightening $5 range.
Natural gas futures oscillated near the $2.00 floor as weak demand capped rallies while traders watched for cooler weather and potential European demand due to Middle East tensions, a senior analyst said.
US-Canada trade talks collapsed, sending the loonie to three-month lows, while Treasury Secretary Bessent unveiled new Iran sanctions, rattling oil markets. The euro stalled near $1.17, yen traders watch for intervention at 160, and gold surged to $4,660.
The dollar held near three-month lows as strong PMI data and rising yields curbed selling. Goldman Sachs said slowing inflation is needed to lower yields, pushing capital toward gold and the yen.
The Australian dollar jumped 0.85% to 0.7180 as USD weakness from Bessent's bond buybacks and Iran sanctions drove the rally. Focus shifts to RBA CPI and Jackson Hole.
The euro held near 1.17 after euro area manufacturing jumped to 52.8, the strongest in over a year. UK PMIs also beat. The dollar steadied after Bessent's buyback announcement. All eyes on Jackson Hole.
Texas heat pushes ERCOT demand above July record, but storage heading for 10-year high and rising production cap futures near $2.80 resistance. Hugh Brinson pipeline adds supply in September.
Retail volumes fell 0.5% q/q against expectations for a 0.1% gain, the worst miss in over two years. The data keeps the RBNZ on track for an August rate cut, with markets now pricing a chance of 50 basis points.
Trump's 'pretty much' deal falls apart at midnight. 50% tariffs on $20bn of Canadian goods go live. Carney vows dollar-for-dollar retaliation on steel, dairy, electronics Sept 8.
BOJ's July inflation data strengthens case for September hike to 1.25%, narrowing yield gaps. USD/JPY targets 162, EUR/JPY 188, GBP/JPY 219.
New 50% tariffs on US imports from Canada target plastic products, electrical machinery, furniture and wood. Canadian value added is 0.4% of GDP. Canada has signaled retaliation.
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Wednesday as Treasury doubles bond buyback, sending dollar to 98.55. Tokyo CPI, Canada Q2 GDP, and US-Canada trade fallout in focus.
Canada Q2 GDP grew 3.3% annualized, far above forecasts. Business investment jumped 12.7%. The Bank of Canada will likely hold rates in September, keeping the loonie supported against a firm dollar.
Brent crude held above $94 as traders priced in a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. WTI tested $86.50 resistance. Natural gas stayed range-bound near $2.75.
RBC sees Q2 GDP growth above 3% annualized as domestic demand strengthens alongside a trade rebound. A midnight deadline on U.S. tariffs looms for a deal to ease duties.
The Treasury doubled bond buyback operations to calm yields. The dollar dropped, gold and bitcoin rose, and yields reversed higher within a day.
The Dollar Index hit a three-month low after Washington doubled buybacks of long-term bonds. EUR/USD climbed above 1.17. Traders said the move signals a political limit on borrowing costs.
Debt-crisis fears are testing the dollar as Treasury yields stabilize. Two historic parallels — Japan and the UK — show what happens when fiscal policy clashes with the central bank.
UBS and DBS argue Treasury's buyback redistributes financing, not reduces it. Dollar weakness spreads across G10 as yields fail to provide support.
Canadian retail sales rose 0.6% in June, beating estimates, with core spending up 1.2%. An advanced July reading of 0.8% suggests momentum carried into Q3.
Manufacturing led the August uptick, with Germany's factory output at a 55-month high and hiring resuming. S&P Global sees 0.3% Q3 GDP and a hawkish ECB bias.