Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
The dollar extends its retreat after Trump says Iran wants a deal. Brent eases, yields dip, and markets price ECB rate hikes more aggressively, lifting EUR/USD. USD/JPY slides on pension fund comments.
The dollar fell after Trump's comment that Iran is open to a deal. Brent crude stabilized above $76, while ECB rate hike bets rise to 90% for September, boosting EUR/USD.
The dollar extended losses after Trump said Iran seeks a deal. ECB rate hike bets outpace Fed, with September hike probability at 90%. EUR/USD rallied, USD/JPY fell on GPIF comments.
The dollar fell after Trump said Iran wants a deal. Brent crude eased, boosting ECB September rate hike odds to 90%. EURUSD held gains; Fed tightening lags. Katayama's GPIF call hit USDJPY.
The rupee slipped past 83 per dollar as Iran tensions spurred oil-import hedging and foreign outflows. RBI intervention capped losses, but traders see 83.20 as the next test.
Rupee closed near 83.50, down 0.3% on the week, pressured by import hedging and rising oil. IT exporters Infosys and Wipro may benefit. Volatility from geopolitical risks could limit gains.
Nordea expects the ECB to skip a July rate hike. The bank still forecasts a September move, citing lower oil prices and softer June inflation as easing price pressure.
RBA June minutes showed the board is not ruling out further tightening, supporting AUD/USD above 0.6930. The pair now tests 0.6960 resistance after breaking the descending trendline.
Traders cut exposure as geopolitical risk makes direction unclear. With the next catalyst unknown, the dollar stayed in a tight range on Friday. The pattern sets up a sharp move once uncertainty resolves.
Goldman Sachs' nowcasting model sees another quarter of modest UK growth. The GDP print will test the BOE's rate path and the pound's yield advantage. Here's what to watch.
WTI crude holds $72.08, Brent $76.13, natural gas oversold near $3.00. How these oil levels feed into inflation expectations, rate paths, and currency pairs.
India's ethanol blending costs more than imported petrol but has saved ₹1.97 lakh crore in forex, the government said. E20 target benefits sugar stocks, pressures OMCs, and eases rupee pressure.
The rupee stayed between 83.40 and 83.55 as oil held firm and the dollar was flat. The RBI capped the downside. The next catalyst is the RBI's April meeting.
The Strait of Hormuz closure lifts oil toward $73, while the yen rallies 0.5% after Katayama's remarks. S&P 500 futures slip 0.1%. The nuclear talks are the next catalyst.
Katayama's push for pension fund domestic investment triggers yen rally and JGB drop. Markets price a structural shift while awaiting concrete policy steps.
AlphaScala breaks down why CAD weakness is a USD story, not a domestic one. Rate differentials, productivity gaps, and timing point to a dollar-centric regime.
Japan's PPI rose 7.1% in June, above forecasts, reinforcing BOJ rate hike expectations. With yen near 40-year low, import costs add pressure. Markets now see October as likely timing for next move.
Finance Minister Katayama refused to comment on JGB yields, stressing fiscal sustainability. Ruling party tweaks economic blueprint, signaling possible fiscal changes ahead.
Japan's June PPI rose 7.1% y/y, above the 6.8% estimate and accelerating from May's 6.3%. The print raises the odds of a BOJ rate hike at the July 30-31 meeting.
Japan's June PPI due Friday is expected to show a slower monthly gain but faster annual pace. NZ holiday thins liquidity. Implications for BOJ and yen.
WTI crude dropped 4% as traders priced in US-Iran de-escalation. Natural gas fell after a larger-than-expected storage build. Key support and resistance levels to watch.
Oil jumped after explosions rocked Iran for a third day. The yen and franc strengthened as the US denied involvement. The uncertainty keeps forex markets on edge.
Foreign buyers took 78% of the $22 billion 30-year bond auction, well above the average. Domestic demand was half the normal share. The tail and bid-to-cover were near recent averages.
DXY breaks above inverse head-and-shoulders neckline after strong jobs data and falling oil, shifting Fed rate views. The breakout signals dollar support and sets up a test of March highs ahead of CPI.
WTI crude near $74 Friday, trapped between Middle East supply fears and slowing global demand. The 200-day moving average caps Brent at $83, traders say. A breakout needs a sharper escalation or a clear OPEC+ signal.
ECB minutes show unanimous June hike, core inflation above 2% across forecast horizon. Even if Middle East conflict eases, pricing damage is locked in. Next test: July CPI and ECB meeting.
Sterling rallied this month. Rabobank flags political and rate risks that could reverse the gains. The next catalyst is the BoE's May decision.
EIA expected 61 bcf injection with surplus at 6.4% above normal. Europe's storage deficit and Iran risk offer a bullish counter. Here's what traders need to watch.
HSBC's research note calling a crude surplus pushed oil back toward $72 after a brief push above $74. The bank's 2026 downgrade cites faster non-OPEC supply and weaker demand. Inventory builds over the next weeks will test the call.
EUR/USD held above 1.1390 support after Fed minutes confirmed hawkish bias, while GBP/USD climbed toward 1.3400 on short-term buying. The next move hinges on Middle East developments and whether buyers can break key resistance.