AUDUSD Nears 0.7000 as Dollar Slips on NFP Miss

The dollar opened the week on the back foot after Friday's employment report missed expectations. The NFP print came in below forecasts, and the unemployment rate stayed elevated. Dollar slides after weak US jobs data dents Fed hike bets That kept the greenback under pressure as the new trading week began. The next major catalyst is Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes, which will offer the first detailed look at the new Chair's thinking.

AUDUSD has been the direct beneficiary of the dollar's weakness. The pair is grinding higher and now approaching the 0.7000 round number. A break above that level would mark the highest since early April. The first support to the downside sits at 0.6870. Without any domestic data from Australia this week, the FOMC minutes represent the most likely source of volatility. A dovish tone could extend the Aussie's recovery. A hawkish surprise would test the 0.6870 floor. The rally has been supported by the dollar's decline, with the Aussie also benefiting from improved risk appetite.

Oil markets are facing a different set of pressures. The ceasefire in the Middle East has held, removing a key risk premium that had supported prices earlier in the year. The weekly outlook notes that the risk factor for another upturn has disappeared, leading to a seller-dominated market. UKOIL is now trading near the $70 handle, a level that has acted as support in recent sessions. The price action remains bearish, with each rally attracting fresh selling. A sustained break below $70 would open the door to the $60 region, a level that has been highlighted in the quarterly outlook. A sharp spike is possible if the ceasefire falters. For now, the bias is toward further downside. Sellers are in control, and any bounce toward $74.50 is likely to attract fresh short interest.