
The dollar fell to a two-week low after a soft US jobs report reduced Fed hike bets. Traders are now focused on Wednesday's CPI for the next direction.
The dollar dropped to a near two-week low on Monday, extending a slide that began after Friday's US jobs report ran softer than expected. Traders reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase this year, narrowing the greenback's rate advantage over the euro and yen, several traders said.
The euro climbed above $1.1050 for the first time since mid-July, a move detailed in our EUR/USD profile. Sterling pushed through $1.2750. The yen strengthened past 143 per dollar, a level not seen since early June. The moves reflected a broad repricing of Fed expectations rather than any euro-area or UK-specific catalyst, traders said.
The weaker dollar rippled into commodity-sensitive currencies. Australia's dollar touched $0.6700, supported by gains in base metals in London. New Zealand's dollar rose alongside dairy prices at the Global Dairy Trade auction. The Canadian dollar was also firmer as oil held near $78 a barrel. All three fell through late July during the dollar's rally. The jobs data reversed some of that pressure.
Gold climbed above $1,950 an ounce, its highest in a month. The inverse relationship with the dollar was the main driver, with traders pricing a flatter US rate path. Industrial metals and crude oil both gained. The weaker dollar lowered costs for buyers using other currencies, pushing prices higher.
Equities took the news in stride. The S&P 500 edged higher as the two-year Treasury yield dropped almost 15 basis points on Friday. The move eased the pressure on growth stocks and long-duration assets. Risk appetite improved across markets, pushing European and Asian indices higher in Monday's session.
The narrower interest-rate differential between the US and the euro area reduces the appeal of long-dollar carry trades, which had been a dominant position through July. Traders said some of those positions were unwound after the payroll report, adding to the downside momentum.
Several Fed officials are due to speak this week. Their tone will help determine whether the dollar's slide continues or reverses, traders said.
Wednesday's consumer price index report will test the new positioning. A number that matches or undershoots expectations would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold into year-end, traders said. A hotter print would revive the hike debate. The data is due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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