
Dollar flat after US holiday weekend. Euro near $1.0840, yen weak at 157. JOLTS and ISM services data this week will test rate expectations.
Currency markets opened the week in quiet trade, with the dollar little changed against the euro and the yen after the three-day US holiday weekend. Trading volumes were thin through the Asian and European sessions. Most major pairs held within tight ranges as investors waited for a series of US data releases and central bank speeches later in the week.
The euro traded near $1.0840. Sterling held around $1.2730. The yen stayed weak near 157, with the Bank of Japan's cautious tone keeping rate-hike expectations in check. The Swiss franc edged lower.
The calendar includes job openings data Tuesday and the ISM services index Wednesday. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policymakers are also scheduled to speak. Each release will be parsed for signs of how fast the economy is cooling and whether inflation remains sticky.
The yen's weakness reflects the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan. The Bank of Japan has signaled no rush to raise rates, leaving the carry trade intact. A break above 158 would test the level that prompted intervention in April.
The euro has been range-bound between $1.08 and $1.09 for two weeks. Eurozone data has been mixed, with producer prices rising but retail sales soft. Market pricing suggests the ECB will cut rates in June, which could cap euro upside.
Sterling has held above $1.27, supported by expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold longer than the ECB. UK services inflation remains elevated, giving the BOE less room to ease.
Soft US data would reduce the case for further Fed rate increases, potentially weighing on the dollar. A strong print would keep yields elevated and the dollar supported. Traders said the market is positioned for a range-bound week, with the first test coming from the JOLTS report Tuesday morning.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March is due at 10 a.m. ET. A decline from the prior month's 8.8 million would reinforce the narrative of a cooling labor market. The ISM services index on Wednesday will offer a read on the broader economy, with any miss below 50 signaling contraction.
For more on the broader forex market analysis, including the EUR/USD profile and GBP/USD profile, see the dedicated pages.
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