Trading analysis backed by real performance data

WTI slipped to $97.62 and Brent to $103.88 as the conditional truce reduced Strait of Hormuz risk, but technical breakdowns point to $93.97 and $100.43 targets. Natural gas at $2.795 faces supply overhang and a bearish channel.

Private-sector members of Japan’s key economic panel warned that smaller firms face funding strains from Middle East turmoil, complicating the BOJ’s rate normalization path.

India's PM Modi urges citizens to conserve foreign exchange as soaring oil prices strain the rupee and deplete FX reserves, prompting speculation about import curbs or NRI bond schemes.

Megan Greene warns the Iran energy shock has shifted UK inflation risks entirely to the upside, complicating the BoE's rate path and sterling's direction.

The failed US-Iran peace deal sent Brent and WTI crude up more than 5%, boosting the dollar as traders reassess inflation risks ahead of Tuesday's US CPI report.

Even without a trade deal, the real FX mover is whether Trump can secure Xi’s help on Iran. That outcome would shape oil, dollar flows, and USD/CNH through the week.

WTI’s two-week chart shows rejection below $120 and defense at $76, with a hold above $97. US-Iran talks remain misaligned, keeping supply risk elevated and supporting CAD, NOK against energy importers.

Price rejections at $120 and $76 frame a bullish bias, but US-Iran diplomatic misalignment keeps supply risk elevated. Next catalyst: talks progress or escalation.

Brent crude surges 6% after Trump rejects Iran's counterproposal, reversing EUR/USD gains and pushing German 10Y yields back toward 3%. US CPI and Trump-Xi summit loom as next catalysts.

US crude reclaimed $100 while the Kospi surged 4.5% to a record and the Nasdaq added 2.35%, as AI investor appetite shrugged off Iran supply risks. The real transmission is through yields and the dollar ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI.