Rupee Opens 15 Paise Higher at 95.28 as Dollar Pulls Back

The rupee picked up 15 paise in early trade on Thursday, opening at 95.28 against the US dollar. The move came as the dollar index eased from overnight highs, giving some headroom to emerging-market currencies that have been under steady pressure for weeks.

Light corporate dollar inflows in the first hour helped support the bid, traders said. State-run banks were not spotted selling dollars aggressively through the morning, a shift from recent sessions where the Reserve Bank of India had been a consistent seller in the spot market.

The rupee closed at 95.43 on Wednesday, near its weakest levels in months. The 15-paise recovery broke a sequence of lower opens that had become routine since late February.

The shape of the rest of the session depends on whether the dollar finds a bid again when European markets open. The DXY has been stuck between 104.50 and 105.00 this week. A break above 105 would likely erase the rupee's early gains, while 95.20 on the downside is the level where importers tend to step in with offers, traders said.

On the broader picture, the rupee has lost roughly 2% against the dollar since the start of 2025. The RBI has been managing the pace of the decline instead of defending a specific level. Its sell-buy swaps in the spot market drain rupee liquidity while slowing the drawdown in foreign-exchange reserves.

India's trade deficit numbers for February are due later this month. A wider shortfall would increase demand for dollars from importers, adding to the pressure. For now, the rupee is getting a reprieve from the dollar's pause, not a change in direction.

The next big catalyst is the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday. A strong print would reinforce the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher, pushing the dollar up and testing the rupee's recent lows again.