AlphaScala Weekly: Silver rips 7%, ETH +9%, V tops model

Good morning,

Metals and crypto ran while the Nasdaq slipped. Silver jumped 6.97% to $62.36, gold added 3.94% to $4,174.97, and ETH climbed 8.85% to $1,755. The QQQ fell 1.59% even as the DIA rose 1.19%, a split week under the surface. Visa topped the AlphaScala model at 80/100, Kinross Gold followed at 79, and Nike drew four insiders buying $2.17M. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The tape split. Precious metals and crypto led, with silver up nearly 7% and ETH close behind at 8.85%, while gold cleared $4,174 and BTC added 3.74% to $62,412. Equities went the other way at the index level, the QQQ down 1.59% and the IWM off 0.46%, even as the DIA rose 1.19% and the SPY eked out 0.51%. WTI slipped 1.65% to $69.24, the only major commodity in the red.

The dollar leaked against the high-beta currencies. NZD/USD rose 1.05% and AUD/USD added 0.73%, with USD/CHF down 0.53% and EUR/GBP off 0.50%. That risk-on FX read sat awkwardly next to the soft Nasdaq close, a mismatch traders will carry into the June payrolls print.

On the signal tape, Visa took the top model slot at 80/100, ahead of Kinross Gold and Flywire at 79. Insiders clustered into Nike, where four bought a net $2.17M over 90 days, and Taiwan Semi drew ten buyers, though the net was a thin $45K. On the political side, Gilbert Cisneros disclosed a run of purchases across AGX, Boot Barn, and CECO, plus a sale in CBZ.

Markets this week

Indices

• QQQ 712.60 ▼ -1.59% from 724.08
• DIA 527.88 ▲ +1.19% from 521.68
• SPY 744.78 ▲ +0.51% from 741.00
• IWM 297.58 ▼ -0.46% from 298.97

Crypto

• ETH/USD 1,755.13 ▲ +8.85% from 1,612.48
• BTC/USD 62,412.4 ▲ +3.74% from 60,162.73

Commodities

• XAG/USD 62.36 ▲ +6.97% from 58.30
• XAU/USD 4,174.97 ▲ +3.94% from 4,016.53
• WTI/USD 69.24 ▼ -1.65% from 70.41

FX

• NZD/USD 0.5710 ▲ +1.05% from 0.5651
• AUD/USD 0.6937 ▲ +0.73% from 0.6887
• GBP/USD 1.33 ▲ +0.66% from 1.33
• USD/CHF 0.8033 ▼ -0.53% from 0.8076
• EUR/GBP 0.8573 ▼ -0.50% from 0.8616
• USD/JPY 161.34 ▼ -0.37% from 161.94
• GBP/JPY 215.37 ▲ +0.30% from 214.73
• EUR/JPY 184.61 ▼ -0.21% from 185.01

Deal Flow

M&A

• Rawasi Albina Signs MoU for 50% Stake in Al Emlaq Trading (Argaam) Rawasi Albina Investment Co. signed a non-binding MoU to acquire a 50% economic interest in Riyadh-based Al Emlaq Trading Est. The deal, if completed, would expand Rawasi's…
• Patrick Industries to Acquire LCI Industries in All-Stock Merger (SA) Patrick Industries will acquire LCI Industries in an all-stock deal valued at 1.2440 PATK shares per LCII share, creating a larger RV and marine components supplier.
• GR8 Tech: Why iGaming's Old Launch-and-Acquire Model is Dead (Worldfinance) GR8 Tech's CRO argues that fragmented tech stacks are crushing operator margins. The cost shows up in slower launches and lost visibility. Consistency is a separate challenge.
• Brink's 30% Drop After NCR Atleos Deal Tests Merger Math (SA) Brink's dropped 30% after announcing an all-stock deal for NCR Atleos. Institutional selling has created a discount, but merger execution risk remains the open question.
• FundBank Rebrands as IRACE Digital, Aims at Fiat-Crypto Bridge (CoinDesk) FundBank rebrands to IRACE Digital, acquires Cayman bank Tenet, hires ex-Zodia CEO John Cronin. The institutional banking play aims to unify fiat and crypto operations under one…
• SARCO wraps up regulatory procedures for waste stake (Argaam) SARCO completed regulatory procedures to acquire a stake in Global Waste Solutions. The deal expands the refiner's environmental services footprint.
• Man Group Takes 1.1% AMG Short Via CFDs as Takeover Looms (Manilatimes) Man Group disclosed a 1.1% net short in AMG Critical Materials via CFDs under Rule 8.3, signaling a bearish view on a looming takeover. The same strategy was used on DCC in August.
• FMC shares surge after Tessenderlo agrees to acquire 20% stake (FMC) (Yahoo) Belgian group Tessenderlo buys 20% of FMC at $13/share, sending stock up 8% pre-market. The deal gives FMC a strategic partner and cash infusion for its ag chem business.
• Man Group Discloses 1.1% AMG Critical Materials Stake (Manilatimes) Man Group PLC holds 3.5 million shares in AMG Critical Materials, a 1.1% stake disclosed under UK Takeover Code Rule 8.3. The filing shows no short positions. What it signals for…
• Next's Harvey Nichols Bid Reshapes UK Luxury Retail (RTE) Next's reported bid for Harvey Nichols would give the retailer a luxury foothold and could spark further department store consolidation.

IPOs / Listings

• Saleh Al Rashed Shares Hit Record Low Since TASI Debut (Argaam) Saleh Al Rashed shares hit their lowest since the TASI listing on June 2, extending a slide that erased most IPO gains amid broader Saudi market weakness.
• Warikoo's ET Article List: Sector Readthroughs for the Next Decade (Economictimes) Ankur Warikoo shared five ET articles covering silver's substitution effect, monsoon timing ladders, NSE IPO valuation, and Akasa's capacity bet. Here's the sector-level value.

Funding Rounds

• GPU Compute Market Opens Up – Can Crypto Still Compete? (Cryptopolitan) Meta redirected GPU compute to external clients, putting pressure on crypto DePIN projects. Odig raised $33M from A16Z to build a unified marketplace. Can crypto hold its price…

Debt

• FMC's $750M Debt Raise: Band-Aid with Dilution Risk (SA) FMC sold $750M in notes at 9.375% to stay afloat. The conversion feature could dilute common equity if the stock stays low. Cash burn continues.
• AFG International Gets SAR 1.35B Loan From Al-Futtaim (Argaam) AFG International shareholders approved a SAR 1.35 billion loan from Al-Futtaim Private Co. to refinance debt and fund working capital, avoiding equity dilution.

Restructuring

• Ashish Kacholia's ₹2,300 Crore Comeback: Why Resilience Beats Riches (Rakesh-jhunjhunwala) From bankrupt at 27 to a ₹2,300 crore portfolio, Ashish Kacholia reveals how he lost ₹1,000 crore twice and rebuilt. The lesson for investors: setbacks aren't the end.
• Paystone Files for Creditor Protection After Debt-Fueled Acquisition Spree (Betakit) Paystone filed for creditor protection after a debt-fueled acquisition spree. A billing error and rising rates triggered a default. BDC Capital opposes the co-founder-led sale,…
• SEC Wins $5.5M Default Judgment Over Fake Crypto Platform NanoBit (CoinDesk) A federal judge ordered $5.5M in penalties against NanoBit and five defendants over a fake crypto platform that never executed trades. At least 18 investors lost nearly $1M.
• MiCA's July 1 Deadline: Why UK Traders Must Check Their Account Entity (CryptoSlate) MiCA's July 1 deadline doesn't shut UK accounts by default. Your platform's legal entity, not the logo, determines the real risk. Here's the account checklist.
• NanoBit Crypto Scam: SEC Wins $5.52M Judgment (AMBCrypto) The SEC won a default judgment against NanoBit and four other entities in a pig butchering scheme, ordering $5.52M in penalties. A federal judge said the scammers wired funds to…
• SAS Orders Up to 40 Airbus Widebody Aircraft for Over $10 Billion (RTE) Scandinavian airline SAS placed its largest ever aircraft order, buying up to 40 Airbus widebody jets for over $10 billion, two years after exiting Chapter 11.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Tihama Fails to Publish Annual Results, Risks Suspension (Argaam) Tihama Advertising said it failed to publish its annual financial statements for the year ended March 31, raising the risk of trading suspension by Saudi regulators.
• Carter's Retail Demand Improves, But Earnings Need to Catch Up (SA) Carter's U.S. same-store sales rose 2.1%, the first positive quarter in a year, but earnings missed estimates and full-year guidance trailed consensus. The stock fell 3.8% after…
• Ford's Quality Win Is Real. The Warranty Bill Isn't Gone Yet. (CNBC) Ford topped J.D. Power's initial quality study for the first time since 2010. CEO Jim Farley says the quality turnaround is halfway done. Warranty costs fell $1.5B in 2025, but…

Macro

• Saudi Banks Cut Bond Holdings by SAR 3.9B to SAR 663B (Argaam) Saudi banks cut government bond holdings by SAR 3.9B to SAR 663B in May, halting a three-month buying run. Loan growth pressures may drive further sales.
• US stock futures mixed ahead of June payrolls report (SA) US stock futures ticked sideways Thursday evening as the market prepared for the June nonfarm payrolls report, the week's biggest catalyst for rate expectations.
• BIS Warns AI Spending Bust Could Spread to Broader Economy (Nakedcapitalism) The BIS warns Big Tech's $1 trillion AI spending binge risks ending in a bust that could rattle markets and damage the global economy. Margin debt and circular financing amplify…
• Adar Poonawalla Family Office puts ₹700 cr into Inox Clean Energy (BL) Adar Poonawalla Family Office invests ₹700 crore in Inox Clean Energy at a ₹70,000 crore valuation, joining CalPERS and other marquee investors as the company expands across…
• India Services PMI Hits 17-Month Low as Hiring Freezes (BL) India's services PMI slid to 57.8 in June, a 17-month low, as hiring froze and domestic demand weakened. Export orders held up, but cooling inflation pressures shift the RBI…
• ADC and O: REITs That Hold Up When the Fed Stays Hawkish (SA) ADC and O carry net-lease REIT yields above 5% with low leverage and long-duration fixed-rate debt that limit the damage from prolonged higher rates.
• North Korea's Kang Kon destroyer returns to sea after May launch failure (BI) North Korea's Kang Kon destroyer, which capsized during a botched May 2025 launch, is now seaworthy and conducting live-fire exercises after a year of repairs, state media…
• Bank of Maharashtra Loans Up 27%, Total Business ₹6.51 Lakh Cr (BL) Bank of Maharashtra's credit rose 27% to ₹3.06 lakh crore, corporate loans crossed ₹1 lakh crore. Deposits rose 13%. CASA ratio slipped to 49%. NIM data due with full results.

Stocks

• Red Sea gets Madinah land for mixed-use project (Argaam) Red Sea International gets a Madinah land plot from the municipality for a mixed-use project. The company will design, build, and operate the site under a long-term deal.
• Neo Space Group activates first IFC on Saudia's Airbus A321XLR (English) Neo Space Group activated NSG Skywaves® connectivity aboard Saudia's first A321XLR, reaching 200 Mbps speeds. The PIF-backed company integrates satellite capacity, airborne tech…
• Heat Dome Threatens July 4 Weekend With Power Strain (BI) A heat dome building across the central and eastern US threatens power grids and travel as AAA forecasts 72.2 million travelers for the Fourth of July weekend.
• Plant pot that expands eightfold targets urban gardener pain point (Retailtimes) A Scottish couple's Helix pot uses NASA-inspired folding to grow with the plant, eliminating repotting. The design targets the fastest-growing segment of home gardeners: young…
• Solid Biosciences: Platform Story Shifts Risk Profile (SA) The Seeking Alpha analyst argues Solid Biosciences is evolving from a speculative Duchenne gene therapy play into a broader clinical validation story, shifting the risk/reward for…
• Jarir, Amana Insurance Hit 52-Week Highs on TASI (Argaam) Jarir Marketing hit SAR 14.50 and Amana Insurance closed at SAR 17.80, both 52-week highs on TASI. Volumes ran above average with no company statements.
• Fiona Cairns Overhauls Brand Look as Royal Baker Eyes Wider Premium Reach (Retailtimes) The premium baker behind the royal wedding cake has a new logo and packaging. The rebrand targets a broader retail audience as competition in premium desserts intensifies.
• Honest Burgers introduces £5 loaded chips to satisfy snacking trend (Retailtimes) Honest Burgers launches £5 loaded chips to tap the snackification trend, as 60% of consumers seek smaller, cheaper meals. The move tests whether premium fast-casual can capture…
• Target: The Turnaround Is Here, The Deep Value Isn’t (NYSE:TGT) (SA) Target comps rose 5.6% and traffic 4.4% on merchandising wins, but SG&A overhead leaves the deep-value argument unfinished. Alpha Score 64 / 100, Moderate.
• Why Two S&P 500 ETFs Can Deliver Different Returns Over Time (Advisor) Structural differences between ETFs tracking the same benchmark can compound into meaningful performance gaps. SPY vs VOO shows how dividend policy and replication matter.
• Ocean Heat Record in June Sets Up a Strong El Niño for 2026 (BL) Global sea surface temperatures hit a record for June, with a 6°C subsurface anomaly in the eastern Pacific signaling a strong El Niño that could disrupt wheat, palm oil, copper,…
• Navitas Doubled on Hype, Not Earnings. That's the Risk (SA) NVTS shares doubled on multiple expansion, not earnings. The next quarterly report will test whether the valuation can hold. A miss could trigger sharp compression.

Crypto

• Trump's $1.4B Crypto Profits: Conflict Risk Escalates (Bitcoin) President Trump defended $1.4B in crypto earnings from memecoin and WLFI tokens. With a bank charter pending and token down 72%, the conflict-of-interest risk for crypto policy is…
• CLARITY Act Passage Expected, Crypto Oversight Shift to CFTC (Crypto Briefing) The CLARITY Act would transfer most digital asset oversight from SEC to CFTC. SEC commissioner says passage expected soon; Senate needs 60 votes by July 4.
• Visa, Mastercard Join 140-Plus Firms to Launch Open USD Stablecoin (Crypto news) Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase and 140+ businesses form Open Standard consortium to launch fee-free stablecoin Open USD later this year. Shared reserve economics and GENIUS Act…
• Bullish (BLSH) Wins Gibraltar Approval for Tokenized Securities (CrowdFundInsider) Bullish (BLSH) won Gibraltar regulatory approval to offer tokenized securities trading, placing it in a growing market alongside Securitize and Backed. No launch date set.
• FundBank Rebrands as IRACE Digital, Targets Fiat-Crypto Bridge (Crypto Briefing) FundBank Group rebrands as IRACE Digital, targeting institutional clients needing banking infrastructure across fiat and crypto. OCC license, Irish branch, Komainu partnership.
• MiCA Deadline Hits July 1: 83% of EU Crypto Firms Still Unlicensed (Crypto news) 83% of EU crypto firms still lack MiCA licences as the July 1 deadline hits. ESMA's register is public. Users on unlicensed platforms face service suspension and wind-downs.
• Hull City's £3M Butland Deal Shows Crypto's Football Retreat (Crypto Briefing) Hull City's £3M goalkeeper swap with Rangers uses no fan tokens or blockchain rails. The club's crypto sponsorship history ended in scandal, mirroring the sector's retreat from…
• DeFi Lending's Wrapper Trap: Tokenized GOOGL Inflated 78x (Crypto Daily) A tokenized Google position on Edel Finance was valued at 78x the real share price. The attacker borrowed against air. The oracle was right. The wrapper was not.
• MiCA's July 1 Deadline May Force 10 Million EU Users to Switch (CoinDesk) Ahead of July 1, EU crypto exchanges without MiCA licenses face winding down, leaving over 10 million users hunting for new platforms, Swissborg's Fazel says.
• FOMC Minutes, CPI, and SpaceX Nasdaq Entry: Crypto Week Ahead (CoinDesk) FOMC minutes, June CPI, and PPI prints set the macro tone for bitcoin this week. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 as its fourth bitcoin-holding member. Zcash's Tachyon upgrade goes…
• Ill Bloom Flaw May Drain More Crypto Wallets After $5M Heist (Crypto news) Coinspect warns Ill Bloom flaw from weak seed randomness may drain more wallets. $5M stolen so far from mobile software wallets. Hardware wallets appear safe.
• Yen Undervalued 20%: Ex-FX Chief Warns Bitcoin Carry Trade (Crypto Briefing) Tatsuo Yamasaki says yen fair value at 120-130 JPY, far from 150. A stronger yen would squeeze the carry trade that funds risk assets like Bitcoin. Traders watch for intervention.

Forex / Commodities

• Rupee Falls 9 Paise to 94.54 After Iran Tensions Spook Markets (Hindu) The rupee erased an early gain to close at 94.54 after renewed US-Iran hostilities dented risk appetite and reversed positive flows from oil and foreign inflows.
• JPMorgan Keeps Overweight on Aura Minerals, Trims Target to $104 (Yahoo) JPMorgan cut its AUGO target to $104.50 but kept an Overweight rating. The project ramp and gold prices will resolve the gap with AlphaScala's Weak quant score.
• Eni's Argentina LNG Stake Depends on Fiscal Rules (Insidermonkey) Eni's 32% stake in Vaca Muerta shale blocks supplies Argentina's $7B LNG export project. A stable fiscal regime is needed to unlock investment. YPF faces execution risk.
• Pembina Pipeline Partners on $35B Oil Pipeline as Canada Accelerates Resource Investment (Financialpost) The Canada-BC prosperity deal and a new Pembina-led oil pipeline could unlock $200B in investment, creating 175,000 jobs and accelerating LNG and copper projects.
• Alcoa's $5.6B Aluminum Bet: Debt Load and AI Demand (Investorideas) Alcoa pays $3.1B cash plus stock for South32's alumina chain. Debt load hits $7B. Synergies hinge on metal prices. Sector read-through: AA, BE.
• Warsh at Sintra, Data Stack Set Q3 Tone as Rate-Hike Bets Rise (Zerohedge) Fed Chair Warsh joins Lagarde and Bailey at Sintra as rate-hike bets rise. July hike pricing hit 34% after Hammack's hawkish comments. S&P futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.6%.…
• Record Heat Tests PJM Grid as EU Hits Low-Cost Imports (SA) The DoE declared a power emergency for PJM Interconnection as a heat wave pushes demand toward records. The EU began a €3 customs fee on low-value imports from outside the bloc.
• Nickel Drops 12% in June as LME Inventories Keep Climbing (SA) Nickel fell 12% in June to $16,733/t, its lowest since early 2024. LME inventories climbed for six straight months. BHP and Vale face margin pressure below $17,000.
• Oil Edges Up as Iran Truce Leaves Strait Risk Open (Forex Live) Oil edges up 1% as Iran truce leaves Strait risk open. Tech futures bounce 1.3% ahead of holiday week. Gold slips 1.3% to $4,035. Fed Chair Warsh and payrolls loom.
• Chevron Picks Texas Pacific Land for $7B Microsoft Data Center Campus (Yahoo) Chevron selects Texas Pacific Land to supply land and water for a $7B data center with Microsoft. The project could pull 0.5 Bcf/d of gas, testing carbon capture at scale. FID due…
• Rio Tinto Shares Climb 17.7% as Commodities Cycle Turns (Raskmedia) Rio Tinto (RTNTF) shares rose 17.7% since January 2025. The stock's Alpha Score of 62 points to moderate valuation. The next catalyst is the commodity cycle peak, and the…
• South Korea Indicts Four Refiners for Oil Price Collusion (CNBC) Prosecutors allege HD Hyundai Oilbank, SK Energy, GS Caltex, and S-Oil colluded to hike fuel prices after the Middle East conflict, affecting 26 trillion won in sales.

Smart Money

• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE AGX
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE BOOT
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE CDRE
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): SALE CBZ
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE CECO
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE CYTK
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: V (Visa Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score top: TLX (Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with moderate momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 54,844 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 146,792 contracts, 42.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 41,094 contracts, 37.8% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.