Pembina Pipeline Partners on $35B Oil Pipeline as Canada Accelerates Resource Investment

The Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement, signed July 2 by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier David Eby, pledges to unlock more than $200 billion in new investment. The same day, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that Trans Mountain Corporation and Pembina Pipeline will build a million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline from Bruderheim, Alberta, to the southern B.C. coast. The estimated cost runs $35 billion to $44 billion.

Resource Works, a Vancouver-based resource advocacy group, called the deal the most significant federal commitment to B.C.'s resource economy in a generation. President and CEO Stewart Muir said the agreement puts natural resources at the centre of national economic strategy, citing LNG, critical minerals, port infrastructure, and energy transmission. The pipeline proposal, he added, signals that Alberta and British Columbia are building together rather than fighting apart.

Pembina's Pipeline Bet

Pembina Pipeline, a midstream operator with a market cap near $50 billion, will co-develop the new west coast route with Trans Mountain Corporation and the Alberta government. The project has been submitted to the federal Major Projects Office and is expected to be listed as a project of national interest by October 1, 2026. Pathways carbon capture, a separate initiative, combined with the pipeline could create roughly 175,000 new jobs, the announcement said.

For investors, the question is whether the cost estimate holds. The $35 billion to $44 billion range is wide, and large infrastructure projects in Canada have a history of overruns. The existing Trans Mountain expansion, finished in 2024, ran more than four times its original budget. Pembina's ability to execute on time and within budget will be tested. The company's stock carries an AlphaScore of 55 out of 100, a Moderate label, reflecting the balance of opportunity and execution risk.

Copper, LNG and the Transmission Line

Beyond the pipeline, the prosperity agreement accelerates four LNG projects: LNG Canada Phase 2, Ksi Lisims LNG, Cedar LNG, and Woodfibre LNG. It also commits $500 million to expand the Red Chris copper mine, increasing Canada's annual copper output by more than 15%. A $3.9 billion North Coast Transmission Line will power the region for generations, and Roberts Bank Terminal at the Port of Vancouver will be expanded to unlock over $100 billion in new trade capacity.

Copper is the standout. The Red Chris expansion alone will add meaningful supply at a time when global copper deficits are forecast to widen. The transmission line also supports electrification and mining, creating a feedback loop that benefits the entire resource sector. LNG producers, meanwhile, gain a clearer path to Asian markets, though the regulatory timeline for Phase 2 remains unscheduled.

Muir said the agreement reflects the leadership of Prime Minister Carney and the two provinces' willingness to find common ground. He noted that British Columbia and Alberta have spent years on opposite sides of resource debates that should be unifiers. The agreement, he argued, shows what happens when two consequential provinces cooperate rather than compete.

The next concrete marker is the Major Projects Office's decision on the national interest listing, expected by October 1. If approved, the pipeline moves into the environmental assessment phase, a process that will draw close scrutiny from Indigenous groups, environmental organizations, and cross-border energy buyers. The scale of the investment – $35 billion to $44 billion – means the pipeline will be one of the largest private infrastructure projects in Canadian history. Whether it clears the permitting hurdles on schedule will determine whether the prosperity agreement delivers on its promise.