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WTI crude dives as US and Iran agree 60-day ceasefire, reopening Strait of Hormuz. Brent breaks $83. Natural gas rises on weather. Friday signing in focus.
Trump says Strait of Hormuz fully open by Friday. WTI falls $4.75 to $80.14, gold rallies $124, silver reclaims 200-DMA. Oil's drop lowers yields and boosts risk assets.
HSBC forecasts USD/CNY at 6.65 by end-2026, betting on Fed rate cuts and a steady PBOC stance. The yuan is already up 3% this year.
The US dollar fell broadly and oil plunged below $80 after reports that the US and Iran agreed a peace framework, easing Strait of Hormuz concerns and shifting central bank inflation outlooks.
Brent below $83, Nikkei hits record. BoJ expected to hike, RBA to pause. All eyes on Fed Wednesday and Warsh's first press conference.
The rupee closed at 94.71, its best level in five weeks, as Brent crude dropped below $80 on US-Iran deal reports. The rally pressures IT stocks like INFY and WIT while lifting banks like HDB ahead of next week's RBI policy decision.
WTI crude touched $80 after US-Iran MoU. European stocks and gold rallied; dollar fell. Next catalysts: BOJ decision and Iran's Hormuz update.
12 of 18 economists in a Reuters poll now expect a Riksbank rate hike before year-end, up from 8 in March. The Iran war and krona weakness drive the shift in policy outlook.
The rupee hit a five‑week high after crude plunged, cutting India's import bill. Traders see further gains if oil stays weak, though RBI intervention and IT sector margins add caution.
The rupee closed at 83.45 per dollar after oil plunged on a U.S.-Iran preliminary deal. Traders see a path to 83.00 if Brent stays below $70 and the dollar softens further.
GBP/INR fell 0.67% to 127.06 as Brent crude dropped 3% on US-Iran deal hopes. Lower oil lifts the rupee by easing India's import bill. UK CPI Wednesday is the next test.
The euro area trade balance swung to a €1.0 billion deficit in April as energy imports surged. The gap widened to €28.8 billion, echoing the 2021–22 energy shock. North Sea crude prices have dropped since, but the Strait of Hormuz passage remains the key variable for the euro's outlook.
April factory output rose just 0.1% mom, half the expected gain, as capital goods fell 0.5%. The soft print pressures the euro ahead of the ECB's July 18 meeting.
Doha talks this week aim to finalize the US-Iran MOU text, with a signing ceremony set for June 19. A deal would remove a key safe-haven bid, weakening the dollar and pressuring oil.
ECB President Lagarde warned energy inflation is spreading into core consumer prices across the Eurozone, complicating the policy outlook even as the Iran peace deal pushes oil lower.
Dollar index touches 99.55, weakest since June 5, as Iran peace deal reverses safe-haven flows. Euro tops $1.0950, sterling above $1.28. Oil drops 4%. CPI print Thursday looms.
Germany's wholesale prices fell 0.6% in May on an energy tax cut. Annual wholesale inflation stays high, with petroleum product prices surging 30.5% on the year.
Bailey says shrinking the gilt portfolio preserves the BoE's ability to buy bonds in a future crisis, pushing back on criticism that the unwind tightens conditions unnecessarily.
Crude oil hit the 91.43–93.96 selling zone and reversed lower. Here is why the Elliott Wave setup worked and what to watch next.
The US-Iran MOU opens Hormuz, suspends oil sanctions, and releases $12B in frozen assets. Oil falls 4%, Nikkei hits record, gold above $4,300. BOJ decision next.
The MOU includes a 30-day mine clearance for Hormuz, a 440kg near-weapons-grade uranium dilution floor, and a 60-day oil sales waiver. Here's what traders need to watch.
LNG export demand at 19.1 bcf/day offsets Thursday's bearish 108 bcf storage build. Qatar's Ras Laffan damage and Strait of Hormuz disruptions give the export story staying power. Monday's weather models decide the short-term trade.
Trump told the NYT he reached an Iran deal over Netanyahu's objections, and will resume strikes if no nuclear accord follows. Oil-linked currencies face renewed risk.
Asian stocks surged, oil slid 4%+ after US-Iran peace deal. Dollar fell, yen rose. Brent crude hit $72.80. Lower oil prices ease inflation, boost import-dependent economies.
Iran vows retaliation after Israeli strike on Beirut, rejecting a U.S. restraint offer. Trump privately rebuked Netanyahu. The peace deal he called close now faces a setback.
Westpac sees crude averaging $85 in Q4 2026 as ceasefire hopes unwind the supply premium. The bank points to slowing demand and rising OPEC+ output. Next test: the June OPEC+ meeting.
Scotiabank strategists say the dollar's run against the Canadian dollar is overextended near 1.4000. Fair value sits at 1.3750, technical resistance looms, and the oil correlation is broken.
Easing sanctions talk lifts oil supply expectations, weighs on the dollar. Next catalyst: the timeline for nuclear negotiations. Dollar index down 0.8% on the week.
Canada's central bank held rates steady. US inflation accelerated to 4.2%, pushing the loonie lower. Trade surplus widened. CUSMA review looms. Fed meeting with Warsh next.
Manufacturing sales seen up 4.6%, retail up 0.6%. Population decline skews per-capita GDP. US retail sales details watched for gasoline squeeze on spending.