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New York Fed President John Williams said inflation should ease to 3.25% by year-end and reach 2% by 2028, citing fading tariff and energy pressures.
The dollar fell after US core inflation missed forecasts, reversing safe-haven gains. EUR/USD rose to 1.1429, GBP/USD to 1.3442, as traders pared rate-hike bets.
The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25%, pointing to a broadening recovery even as oil prices above $85 threaten the inflation outlook and test its 2027 target.
US PPI fell 0.3% in June, the biggest goods decline since 2022, as energy prices dropped 6.4%. The data strengthens the disinflation case ahead of the Fed's next meeting.
The Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 15.6 in July from 5.70, well above the 8.80 estimate, as new orders and shipments picked up sharply.
European session: long-end yields push back up after US CPI, oil holds near $80 at $79.85. Euro flat at 1.1418, dollar recovers losses. US PPI report due Thursday.
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.2% in May from April, missing the 0.3% increase economists expected. Energy and capital goods rose, but durable consumer goods dropped 1.1%.
Eurozone industrial output missed estimates in May, dragged by a 5.2% drop in Ireland. The ECB is expected to hold in July, with a September cut fully priced.
Brent crude surged to $86 a barrel after the Washington-Tehran ceasefire collapsed. US strikes hit Iranian infrastructure, Iranian missiles struck Emirati tankers. A confirmed break above $85 opens the path to $90-$92.
US June CPI fell 0.4%, first drop since 2020, paring Fed rate-hike bets. The BoC is expected to hold at 2.25%. Oil above $85 on Middle East risks.
Takaichi says global factors, not her government's ¥370 trillion spending plan, are behind the surge in JGB yields to multi-decade highs.
OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the third month, while supply from OPEC+ rose in June. The EIA sees U.S. LNG exports averaging 17.4 Bcf/day in 2026.
Spain June CPI held at 3.2% y/y, meeting prelim. Core inflation eased to 2.9%. The ECB has room to pause in July, but oil and yields keep September in doubt.
GBP/EUR held near €1.1731 as Bailey pushed back on rate-cut bets. UK political stability after the election is still supporting sterling against a euro weighed by French risk.
US June CPI came in at 3.5% vs 3.8% expected, driven by a steep drop in gasoline. Markets rallied, but oil tensions and rising yields could limit the relief.
China GDP slowed to 4.3% in Q2, missing the 4.5% consensus and marking the weakest quarter since 2022. June industrial output beat forecasts, but property investment declined 18% in the first half.
China's economy grew 4.3% in Q2, missing forecasts and marking the slowest pace since the pandemic. The miss adds pressure for a fiscal response at the upcoming Politburo meeting.
EUR/USD climbed to 1.0900 as softer US CPI data eased Fed hike expectations, with traders now eyeing Friday's PCE report for the next directional move.
June house prices fell 3.3% y/y, a shallower drop than May's 3.5%, as stimulus in the property sector produced a slight improvement without reversing the slide.
The rupee slid to an eight-week low as Middle East tensions and surging oil prices weighed on sentiment. The currency's decline comes as the RBI monitors the spot market for potential intervention.
Reuters Tankan shows manufacturers steady at +13 on AI demand; non-manufacturers ease to +25. Wholesale inflation at 6.3% in May keeps BOJ cautious.
Beijing targets 60tn yuan in retail sales by 2030 but with slower growth. The plan focuses on services spending and higher incomes to rebalance China's economy away from export-driven output.
Crude oil rallied to $81.59, breaking a downtrend line and a key resistance level. Technical analyst Bruce sees next target at the 50-day moving average near $86.70.
China June data shows retail sales falling y/y while industrial output holds at +4.6% on exports. Q2 GDP due Wednesday.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided rate-path clues in his congressional testimony after softer CPI, repeating his commitment to price stability and criticizing the central bank's 2020 inflation framework.
Crude futures break above key moving averages as Middle East missile strikes and a softer US CPI weaken the dollar, boosting commodities. Brent tops $85.
US core CPI came in flat in June, below expectations, sending the 2-year yield down 6 bps and reducing bets on further Fed hikes. Next test: Chair Warsh's testimony.
Traders watch 50-day EMA for dip buying as interest rate differentials favor the dollar. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6950, NZD/USD tests 0.58 Fibonacci level.
June's NFIB index rose to 97.4, led by a jump in sales expectations. Labor constraints and inflation pressures persist, TD Bank economists said.
June CPI fell 0.4%, core flat, giving the Fed room to wait on rate hikes despite oil above $87. NZD leads, dollar lags as markets shift focus from geopolitics to inflation.