Iran Deal's Fine Print: Gradual Hormuz, Nuclear Floor, Phased Relief

The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, brokered by Pakistan and set for signing in Switzerland on Friday, contains terms that go well beyond the initial ceasefire announcements, according to people briefed on the talks. For traders who priced in a clean supply catalyst, the fine print introduces execution risk and a longer timeline.

On the Strait of Hormuz, reopening is not a switch. Iranian forces will clear mines laid during the conflict over 30 days. No toll will be levied on shipping during the 60-day period, removing one early concern about Tehran monetising passage. The gradual timeline means the supply boost markets expected will not arrive immediately. The process depends on Iranian execution, and no independent verification mechanism is specified.

The nuclear component carries the most long-term weight. Iran will reaffirm its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and will enter talks on disposal of its enriched uranium stockpile once the MOU is signed, the people said. That stockpile exceeds 9,000kg. The bulk is at low enrichment. A separate 440kg sits at near weapons-grade concentration. The floor commitment is dilution of all material on-site, supervised by the International Atomic Energy Agency. What the ceiling demand looks like from Washington remains to be negotiated. The distance between those two positions will define the difficulty of follow-on talks.