Iran Deal Crushes Oil: WTI Eyes $81, Brent $83

WTI crude opened sharply lower Monday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day interim ceasefire. The deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts the naval blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump said the strait would be fully open by Friday, with passage toll-free – a reversal of Iran's earlier attempt to charge ships moving through the waterway.

Vice President JD Vance is expected to sign the memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday. The full text will be released sometime after that date. Trump has not confirmed whether he will attend.

Israel's operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon remains active. The interim deal does not address Iran's nuclear program, which was the original justification for the military campaign against the country. Markets are ignoring those risks for now, Vladimir Zernov, an independent trader with 18 years of experience, noted in a forecast. Traders are pricing immediate supply relief.

Crude: The Hormuz Premium Unwinds

WTI is trying to break below the $81.00–$81.50 support zone. If the break holds, the next floor sits at $76.50–$77.00. RSI is in moderate territory despite the heavy sell-off, meaning momentum could accelerate if the deal holds through Friday's signing, Zernov said. A failure to break $81.00 would suggest the market has already priced the Hormuz reopening and is waiting for the next catalyst.

Brent crude already cleared the $86.00–$86.50 support that held for weeks. It is now testing $83.00. If that gives way, the $81.00–$81.50 range becomes the next target, followed by $77.00–$77.50. The speed of the move matters: a slow bleed into $81.00 would signal position-squaring. A fast break would indicate fresh shorts piling in.

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