US-Iran Doha Talks Clear Path for Friday MOU, June 19 Signing

Oil prices face their own pressure. The prospect of Iran returning to supply quotas under an agreement would add to downward momentum. Lower crude pushes inflation expectations lower, which in turn opens room for the Federal Reserve to ease. That dynamic further pressures the dollar.

The 60-day technical phase that follows the signing carries execution risk. The pace of sanctions relief and nuclear monitoring will be negotiated during that window. Delays could reintroduce volatility. The path for now is set.

The risk is not symmetric. If the Doha talks hit a snag or produce a text that leaves critical differences unresolved, the dollar could regain its safe-haven premium quickly. The euro and risk-sensitive currencies would likely reverse their recent gains. Oil prices would bounce on the expectation that Iranian supply remains sidelined.

The framework is already in place. The Doha sessions are about tying up loose ends, not renegotiating terms. That is positive for currencies that benefit from reduced geopolitical risk, such as the euro and commodity-linked currencies. The yen, which had drawn safe-haven flows, would cede some of those gains.

The signing ceremony on June 19 is the next concrete milestone. After that, the 60-day technical phase will determine how quickly sanctions relief flows and how intrusive nuclear monitoring becomes. Those details matter for the longer-term trajectory of oil prices and the dollar's risk premium. For now, the market's focus is on the Doha talks and the MOU itself.