Brent below $83, Nikkei hits record. BoJ expected to hike, RBA to pause. All eyes on Fed Wednesday and Warsh's first press conference.
Alpha Score of 37 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, weak quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Iran and the US signed a peace agreement Friday in Switzerland. Brent crude gapped lower at the weekly open and fell below USD 83. The war premium that built over recent months is unwinding fast.
Equities surged. Japan's Nikkei jumped 5% to a record high. European stocks rallied. US futures pointed to strong gains on Wall Street. The dollar is the weakest major currency of the day. The Swiss franc and the euro lead the gainers. The yen fell as investors rotated out of safety. The Canadian dollar struggled with the sharp decline in crude. Traders using a currency strength meter can see the full rotation.
The relief rally has a narrow window before central banks take over. The Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet first. The Federal Reserve delivers its decision Wednesday.
BoJ Expected to Hike, RBA to Hold
The BoJ is set to deliver a 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.00%. Governor Kazuo Ueda is hospitalized. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will front the press conference. Markets do not expect clear guidance on the pace of future tightening. Economists surveyed by Reuters see rates reaching 1.25% later this year and 1.50% in 2026. Confirmation of that path may wait until July's updated forecasts.
The RBA faces a different question. After three consecutive rate increases, policymakers are expected to pause at 4.35%. The market is split. One camp sees slowing economic activity bringing inflation under control without further moves. Another points to persistent price pressures and hawkish rhetoric from RBA officials. Nearly half the economists in a Reuters poll expect at least one more hike before year-end.
Fed Decision Is the Main Event
Wednesday's Fed decision carries the most weight. Chair Kevin Warsh will hold his first press conference. The core question is whether he starts preparing markets for a world where the next move is a hike. The tone could set the direction for currencies, yields and equities for months ahead. The oil-driven dollar move and its implications for forex are covered in detail.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook
AUD/USD broke above the 0.7076 level that had acted as resistance. The move suggests the decline from 0.7277 may have completed as a three-wave correction at 0.6977. Intraday bias has turned back to the upside. The next target is 0.7200. A break below 0.6977 would resume the fall toward 0.6832. On a broader scale, the failure to sustain above the 61.8% retracement of the 2021–2024 range at 0.7206 points to a possible medium-term top at 0.7277. A deeper correction toward 0.6756 is possible, though that level should offer strong support.
The peace rally has room to run in the near term. The real test arrives Wednesday when the Fed decides whether to endorse the market's dovish repricing or signal that inflation risks remain too high.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.