Trump says Strait of Hormuz fully open by Friday. WTI falls $4.75 to $80.14, gold rallies $124, silver reclaims 200-DMA. Oil's drop lowers yields and boosts risk assets.
Alpha Score of 36 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, poor value, moderate quality, poor sentiment.
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully open by Friday, President Trump said, adding a concrete timeline to the U.S.–Iran framework agreement. West Texas Intermediate dropped $4.75 to $80.14 after bouncing from a $79.70 low. Equities extended their gains: the Nasdaq up nearly 3%, the S&P 500 advancing close to 2%.
The memorandum of understanding ties sanctions relief to verifiable Iranian compliance. The removal of the Strait of Hormuz disruption risk drove crude lower, as detailed in Oil Drops Below $80 After US-Iran MoU; Equities Rally, Dollar Falls. Traders had priced a significant risk premium into crude after earlier disruptions. Today's move unwinds a chunk of that.
Lower oil prices feed directly into inflation expectations. U.S. 2-year yields fell 4 basis points to 4.045%. The 10-year lost 2.6 basis points to 4.459%. The yield curve steepened. Lower crude prices were the dominant driver, traders said. Energy costs feed directly into near-term inflation expectations. The dollar slid broadly on the agreement, as reported in US Dollar Slides as US and Iran Finally Agree Peace Deal.
Gold rose $124, or 2.95%, to $4,344. It remains below its 200-day moving average at $4,428.31, a level that has capped upside for weeks. Silver outperformed, up 3.44% to $70.35. It reclaimed its 200-day average at $67.70, a more constructive technical signal.
Bitcoin tracked the risk-on shift, trading at $67,138 near the session high of $67,253. The cryptocurrency has correlated with equity beta in recent months; today's move reinforces that relationship.
The Strait of Hormuz is scheduled to reopen Friday. If flows resume without incident, crude has room to test pre-disruption levels near $75, traders said. They also noted that any implementation delay would quickly reinstate the geopolitical premium.
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