Trump says Strait of Hormuz fully open by Friday. WTI falls $4.75 to $80.14, gold rallies $124, silver reclaims 200-DMA. Oil's drop lowers yields and boosts risk assets.
Alpha Score of 41 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully open by Friday, President Trump said, adding a concrete timeline to the U.S.–Iran framework agreement. West Texas Intermediate dropped $4.75 to $80.14 after bouncing from a $79.70 low. Equities extended their gains: the Nasdaq up nearly 3%, the S&P 500 advancing close to 2%.
The memorandum of understanding ties sanctions relief to verifiable Iranian compliance. The removal of the Strait of Hormuz disruption risk drove crude lower, as detailed in Oil Drops Below $80 After US-Iran MoU; Equities Rally, Dollar Falls. Traders had priced a significant risk premium into crude after earlier disruptions. Today's move unwinds a chunk of that.
Lower oil prices feed directly into inflation expectations. U.S. 2-year yields fell 4 basis points to 4.045%. The 10-year lost 2.6 basis points to 4.459%. The yield curve steepened. Lower crude prices were the dominant driver, traders said. Energy costs feed directly into near-term inflation expectations. The dollar slid broadly on the agreement, as reported in US Dollar Slides as US and Iran Finally Agree Peace Deal.
Gold rose $124, or 2.95%, to $4,344. It remains below its 200-day moving average at $4,428.31, a level that has capped upside for weeks. Silver outperformed, up 3.44% to $70.35. It reclaimed its 200-day average at $67.70, a more constructive technical signal.
Bitcoin tracked the risk-on shift, trading at $67,138 near the session high of $67,253. The cryptocurrency has correlated with equity beta in recent months; today's move reinforces that relationship.
The Strait of Hormuz is scheduled to reopen Friday. If flows resume without incident, crude has room to test pre-disruption levels near $75, traders said. They also noted that any implementation delay would quickly reinstate the geopolitical premium.
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