Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon fell 1.2% Friday, tracking crude lower as traders weighed the storage squeeze. Commercial crude inventories sit at 2018 lows. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is near 1980s levels. That combination, analysts said, makes $70 oil unsustainable — either demand cracks or prices rise. The numbers back the caution. Revenue dropped 4.1% year over year. EPS fell 21.6%. Net margin is 7.8%, thin for an integrated major. The 22.4 P/E is not cheap for a company shrinking earnings. The Alpha Score sits at 43.3, dragged by quality at 36.6 and momentum at 40.1. Value scores better at 48.7, but that reflects the stock sitting 40% off its 52-week high of $176.41. Watch the weekly inventory report Wednesday. Another draw below 4 million barrels would tighten the argument for higher crude — and test whether Exxon's downstream margins can absorb the input cost.

Exxon slipped further toward the bottom of its 52-week range this week, touching $105.53 before a modest bounce. Shares traded at roughly 22 times trailing earnings, but that multiple masks a deteriorating profit picture. Revenue fell 4.1% year over year. Earnings per share dropped 21.6%. Net margin came in at 7.8%, down sharply from prior periods. The Alpha Score of 43.6 reflects weakness across most sub-scores. Momentum at 41.1 and quality at 36.6 both suggest the stock lacks catalysts. A value score of 48.7 is nothing special for big energy. Sentiment at 50 is neutral, offering no tailwind. Trump's new DOJ probe into oil pricing has added headline risk. The theory — that big oil gouged consumers — doesn't match industry data showing retail lags reflect supply chain restocking, not margin padding. But the threat of disruption is enough to keep institutional buyers on the sidelines.

Exxon Mobil fell 1.2% on thin volume Tuesday, extending its retreat from the July highs near $140. The stock now sits at $127.40, roughly 28% off its May 2024 peak of $176.41. The company reported lower Permian Basin output in a regulatory filing Monday evening, citing pipeline maintenance that curtailed volumes by roughly 40,000 barrels per day during the quarter. Revenue dropped 4.1% year over year, and EPS fell 21.6% — a compression that pushed net margins to 7.8%, down from 11.2% a year earlier. Alpha Score momentum sits at 44, dragged by a quality sub-score of 36.6. Value and sentiment hold near 50, suggesting the stock is neither cheap nor hated — just stuck in a range. At 22.4 times earnings, the premium to the sector median of 12.5 is hard to defend without production growth. Refining margins and global crude prices remain the two variables ahead of the August 2 earnings call. Watch the July production update, due mid-week, for signs of a rebound from the maintenance-driven dip.

Exxon Mobil closed near the bottom of its 52-week range, at roughly $110. The stock has shed about 38% from its June 2024 high of $176.41. The numbers explain the drop. Revenue fell 4.1% year over year. Earnings per share dropped 21.6%. Net margin, at 7.8%, is down from the prior year. The Alpha Score sits at 44.5, with the quality sub‑score the weakest link at 36.6. Value is the top sub‑score at 48.7, still below the neutral 50 mark. Next quarter's earnings, due in late April, will show whether the decline in earnings is stabilizing. Analysts will focus on production volumes and refining margins.

Shares of Exxon Mobil drifted lower after the White House ordered a Justice Department probe into oil majors over retail gasoline pricing. The move targets the gap between falling crude costs and sticky pump prices, a gap that has drawn consumer and political scrutiny. For Exxon, the timing is rough. Revenue fell 4.1% year over year, EPS dropped 21.6%. Net margins sit at 7.8%. The stock trades at 22.57 times earnings, with a 52-week range of $105.53 to $176.41 showing plenty of downside room. Alpha Score momentum sits at 41.1, value at 48.5, quality at 36.6, sentiment at 50.7. Analysts note that momentum clusters are forming in offshore names and Latin American producers, not the integrated majors. That divergence, combined with the probe, means Exxon's near-term path depends more on legal headlines than on fundamentals. What to watch: the DOJ probe's scope and any subpoenas. Also, the weekly EIA inventory report Thursday could shift crude prices and the pricing gap narrative.