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WTI crude fell 6% to $79.56 after Iran refuted Trump's claim of an imminent deal. Bond yields dropped, dollar steadied, equities rose 1%.
Saudi Arabia's maritime coalition proposal sent Brent crude below $100 as tanker traffic resumed. The technical setup shows a neutral RSI with support at $86.80 and resistance at $94.60.
The final Eurozone PMI came in at 51.9, with output at 52.9, a 52-month high. The open question is whether new orders can replace backlog-driven growth.
Warsh's silence on the reaction function steepened the curve and weakened the dollar. Yen intervention, oil's 8% drop on Iran talks, and the ISM data set up Friday's NFP.
Brent crude falls $6 after Trump confirms Iran talks resume Monday. Euro area CPI edges higher, dollar weakens, and Japan intervenes on yen for first time in 30 years.
US-Japan yen intervention puts the carry trade in focus. BofA sees a BOJ hike in October; MUFG says fundamentals must change for a durable move.
The US and Iran are back at the negotiating table, sending oil lower. The same red lines on enrichment remain. Shiptraffic data shows limited improvement through the Strait.
Oil slid nearly 5% after Trump claimed a Hormuz deal. The yen surged as the US and Japan confirmed joint intervention. China's factory PMI missed forecasts.
The US Treasury and Japan's MOF bought yen together for the first time since 1998, with Bessent saying the Trump administration will not hesitate to repeat the intervention.
First joint US-Japan yen intervention since 2011 confirmed; dollar dropped to 157.07 yen from a 40-year high of 164. More coordinated action is possible.
China's private-sector manufacturing expanded for an eighth straight month in July. The pace slowed to a four-month low. Export orders returned to growth after three months of contraction.
China's private-sector factory activity slowed in July, with the RatingDog PMI falling to 50.9 from 51.7, missing forecasts. The miss adds to pressure for more stimulus.
Brent crude drops 6% to $82 after Trump calls for Iran talks. Yen jumps 1% after coordinated US-Japan intervention. Asian stocks mixed, with Nikkei and KOSPI lower.
Output and new orders both turned positive for the first time in six months, but 40% of firms reported higher input costs tied to Middle East fuel and shipping disruption. RBA decision due next week.
Finance Minister Katayama to confirm first joint yen-buying since 2011 after $58.97B intervention. US Treasury signaled readiness, with Bessent note to buy $5-10 bil. Fed repo facility gives Tokyo room to act without selling Treasuries.
RBI's concessional swap facility, open through end-2026, has attracted $40.8 billion. FCNR(B) deposits led at $36.7 billion, the central bank said.
The dollar's reserve share slides below 58% as central banks diversify, yet foreign investors bought $1.43 trillion of US assets last year. De-dollarization is a slope, not a cliff.
Treasury Secretary's to-do list, photographed at Camp David, lists buying yen. The move would mark rare U.S. intervention to support the currency.
Economists expect Canada's job market to add 5,000 positions in July with the unemployment rate at 6.5%. Hiring demand has stabilized despite trade uncertainty, the note said.
The yen dominated Friday's session on intervention speculation. Three Fed dissenters pushed for a 25bp hike. The 10-year yield rose 5.1bp to 4.714%.
WTI oil rebounded as Trump threatened Iran, while natural gas held above $2.70 after EIA data showed a 28 Bcf storage build. Traders eye $86 resistance for WTI.
WTI crude bounced at the 50-day EMA as Middle East risks kept a floor under prices. The weekly API inventory report due Tuesday and any escalation in the region will set the next direction.
The University of Michigan sentiment index rose to 55.2 in July, topping estimates. One-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2%, the lowest since December 2025, supporting the dollar.
Canada's economy grew 0.3% in May, beating the 0.2% estimate and marking the second consecutive monthly increase. Broad-based gains across 13 of 20 sectors.
Dollar rebounds Friday. Traders cut shorts ahead of Middle East weekend. Oil above $88, BoJ intervention confirmed. Any Iran escalation would hit dollar from both inflation and safe-haven channels.
Japan intervened after USDJPY broke 159.50, sending the pair down more than 3% in two days. Fed Chair Warsh's dovish tone and stronger eurozone GDP data added pressure.
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged in an 8-1 vote. Takata dissented for a hike. The outlook report raised inflation forecasts, reinforcing the case for a move by year-end.
Two quarters of contraction have triggered "technical recession" talk. The story is more complex: Canada has absorbed rolling sectoral shocks without a synchronized downturn.
Australia Q2 CPI rose just 0.6%, half Q1's pace, ending RBA tightening risks. Westpac drops its 2026 hike call. The AUD jumped. The FOMC and BoE held steady.
WTI crude bounced from support near $78.56, reclaimed the 50-day moving average, and sits inside a symmetrical triangle. A breakout above $88.90 targets $94.38.