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Pound to Rupee FX Forecast: GBP Eyes 123.50 as Lower Oil Prices Boost INR
GBP/INR fell 2.52% in June as lower oil prices and capital inflows boosted the rupee. Support at 124.00; a break opens 123.50. UK GDP next week is the next catalyst.
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The pound traded near 124.59 against the rupee on Friday, extending June's decline as lower oil prices and stronger capital inflows lifted the Indian currency. The pair has fallen 2.52% month-to-date. Seven days ago it sat at 124.89. A year-to-date change was not given in the source.
Lower crude prices directly reduce India's import bill. The country buys roughly 85% of its oil from abroad, so a sustained drop in Brent translates into a narrower trade deficit and less demand for dollars. That dynamic has been the main driver of rupee strength since early June, traders said.
Capital inflows have added to the tailwind. Foreign portfolio investors have been net buyers of Indian equities and debt this month, drawn by the country's relatively high real yields and a stable current-account picture. The rupee has gained against most major crosses, not just sterling.
On the pound's side, the Bank of England faces a tricky inflation call. UK services CPI printed above expectations last month, pushing back bets on an August rate cut. That kept sterling bid through mid-June, momentum faded as oil's decline pulled down broader commodity currencies and the dollar found a bid.
The resistance level for GBP/INR sits around 125.00, a zone that capped rallies in late May. Support now lies at 124.00. A break below that opens the path toward 123.50, where a cluster of buy orders from earlier this year sits, analysts said.