Oil climbs back above $69 after US-Iran truce. US 10-year yield bounces from 3-month low. Euro, sterling, yen hold narrow ranges. US jobs data ahead Thursday.
Alpha Score of 27 reflects poor overall profile with poor momentum, poor value, moderate quality, poor sentiment.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran held through the start of the week, reversing some of the late-week risk-off moves. Oil prices firmed, US Treasury yields bounced from three-month lows, and the dollar settled into the ranges seen before the weekend's hostilities.
August WTI crude touched $68.55 on Friday, its lowest since March 4, and settled below the 200-day moving average near $70.20. Monday's session saw consolidation between $69.30 and $71, as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed without stopping. The ceasefire accord stopped the tit-for-tat strikes that had spiked geopolitical risk.
Benchmark 10-year yields across Europe fell to fresh three-month lows on Friday. Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Greece all posted multi-week yield troughs. The US 10-year yield settled near 4.37% on Friday, the lowest since May 8. Monday yields rose roughly 1–2 basis points in Europe and Japan; the US 10-year edged up to 4.38%.
The euro tested $1.1435 before the weekend and then retreated to near $1.1385. Monday's range of $1.1380–$1.1415 straddles $1.1400. Options for 1.3 billion euros at that level expire today. The 38.2% retracement of the euro's move from the mid-month high near $1.1620 sits just above the weekend high. See the EUR/USD profile for key levels.
Sterling briefly traded above $1.3230, best in three sessions, with the 38.2% retracement of the losses since mid-May at roughly $1.3265. It held a narrow range of $1.3190–$1.3230 Monday. New Labour MP Andy Burnham is expected to give an economic speech this week and may name his chancellor candidate. The leadership contest faces little opposition. GBP/USD levels remain anchored.
The dollar stayed within a precise range against the yen: JPY161.50 to JPY161.95. The band held Monday. Options for $2.3 billion at JPY161.50 expire today. The dollar posted its sixth weekly advance in seven weeks last week. The Bank of Japan's policy path remains the focus.
The Canadian dollar's bounce after ten consecutive falls looked muted. USD/CAD retreated from nearly CAD1.4250 to about CAD1.4170. Monday it traded between CAD1.4175 and CAD1.4210. A break below CAD1.4135 would signal a top. The Australian dollar recovered from its lowest level since early April near $0.6875 but stalled above $0.6915. It is stuck between the 200-day moving average near $0.6860 and the five-day moving average near $0.6925.
The dollar fell against the Mexican peso to almost MXN17.43 on Friday, a three-day low, then recovered to near MXN17.5080. Support likely lies in the MXN17.3550–MXN17.3750 zone that houses the 20-day moving average. The offshore yuan consolidated after falling to a one-month low midweek, holding a range of roughly CNH6.790–CNH6.820.
The Indian rupee did not trade Friday due to a holiday. On Thursday the rupee touched its best level since early May. USD/INR found support near INR94.14 and has not traded below INR94.00 in two months. A gap from Thursday extended to INR94.5975; Monday's high stayed just below that.
Equities were mixed. Japan edged higher despite China adding 20 Japanese companies to its export control list. Europe's Stoxx 600 nursed a minor loss after shedding nearly 0.7% on Friday. US equity futures pointed higher, with the Nasdaq up more than 1% and the S&P 500 up about 0.75%. Gold straddled $4,000 over the past three sessions, peaking near $4,096 but failing to close above its five-day moving average near $4,081. Silver posted an outside day higher on Friday but saw no follow-through, retreating to about $57.40 after being turned back from $60.
The US economic calendar shifts to the labor market this week. June nonfarm payrolls are due Thursday because of the July 4 holiday. The median estimate in Bloomberg's survey is 113,000 jobs. Through May, the average monthly gain stands near 115,000. The ECB's annual conference in Sintra runs through Wednesday, with speeches from Lagarde, Bailey, Macklem, and Warsh. Until jobs data lands, currency ranges may persist.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.