Dollar, Silver, Copper at Inflection Points – The Levels That Matter

Silver is producing one of the more interesting divergences across the metals complex. Thursday's session closed above 5808, filling the prior morning bearish gap. That should have set up a bullish continuation. Instead, today's Asian open brought a fresh bearish gap between 5788 and 5836, followed by another downswing and a retest of the green support line drawn from previous lows. All of this happened while the dollar was weakening. Radomska sees that as evidence that buyers still are not in control. Silver needs a daily close above 6121 before any rally can be taken seriously. Until then, each bounce looks more like a retest of the breakdown below the March low than the start of a sustained uptrend. If the green support line gives way, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension near 5523 becomes the next stop.

Copper delivered the first meaningful bullish signal in the group. Thursday's session invalidated the earlier breakdown below the lower boundary of the red descending channel. The technical picture has improved noticeably. Today's Asian pullback tested both the bullish gap from 594.85 to 598.47 and the channel's lower line, which now acts as support. So far, buyers have defended both. If that support area holds, the next upside target is Wednesday's bearish gap between 612.55 and 614.80. Radomska says that gap must be filled before a larger upside continuation can be discussed. Copper remains locked in a consolidation until that happens.

The common thread is that improving price action and confirmed trend reversals are two different things. A chart can look better without proving its direction. For copper, the next test is the 612.55–614.80 gap. For silver, the trigger is a daily close above 6121. For the dollar, today's close determines whether the channel breakout was real or a fakeout. Patience remains a position, not a weakness.