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June CPI fell 0.4%, core flat, giving the Fed room to wait on rate hikes despite oil above $87. NZD leads, dollar lags as markets shift focus from geopolitics to inflation.
US inflation slowed more than expected in June, with core CPI unchanged on the month. The data challenge recent Fed tightening expectations.
Brent crude rose to a one-month high after the Strait of Hormuz closure, breaking above $80 and the 200-day moving average. The golden cross signals continued gains.
BofA survey shows record 54% expecting 'no landing' as CPI looms. Waller signals July hike if core inflation beats 0.2%. Oil above $80 on Iran risk.
Oil rose 9% Monday and extended gains above $80 after Middle East tensions escalated. Dollar consolidated, JGBs rallied on bond plan. CPI and bank earnings in focus.
Rupee falls past 96/USD to one-month low as oil climbs above $85; RBI likely steps in via state-run banks to check volatility.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 97.4 in June, above the 95.7 consensus, marking a second straight monthly gain and the highest since early 2023.
Most CPI forecasts cluster near the upper bound of the range. A low-side print inside the range could still surprise markets, traders said.
WTI crude faces a hard ceiling at $72 as OPEC+ supply additions offset Middle East risk premium. A close above that level with volume is needed to break the downtrend.
Germany's wholesale price index dropped 0.7% month-on-month in June, led by a 6.8% slide in petroleum products. Annual inflation eased to 4.9% from 5.9% in May.
China's exports jumped 27% in June, imports climbed 36%, and the trade surplus hit $125.6B, all well above forecasts.
June CPI expected to show headline easing to 3.8%, but oil above $80 and World Cup distortions complicate the Fed outlook. Markets price 43% odds of a July hike.
Trump's 20% fee on Hormuz shipping and renewed Iran port blockade pushed WTI 13.8% higher in July. A breakout above $88 targets $100.
Oil rallied on continued Middle East strikes, weighing on the yen. NZD rose on hawkish RBNZ commentary, while China exports surged 27%. US CPI data due Tuesday.
AI demand and tariff front-loading drove China's June exports up 27% and imports up 36%, both well above forecasts. GDP data due Wednesday now carries added weight.
Australia's NAB business confidence index rose 9 points to -5 in June. Inflation pressures cooled: purchase cost growth slowed and retail prices fell for the first time in seven years.
Headline CPI seen falling 0.2% in June as gasoline slides 15%. Core inflation holds near 2.9% with services accelerating. Fed's Warsh faces tough testimony.
Imports surged 36% as both external and domestic demand beat forecasts. The $125.8B trade surplus may reduce pressure for policy easing.
Australian consumer sentiment rose 4.1% in July to 83.9, but remains among the weakest 10% of readings in 50 years. Focus shifts to June CPI due July 29 for RBA rate path.
NZIER survey shows business confidence jumped to net 12% from 1%. But demand stayed weak, and inflation pressures re-emerged, complicating the RBNZ's rate path.
Fed Governor Waller warned Tuesday's CPI surprise could force a near-term rate hike, shifting his tone. September hike odds hit 77% on CME data.
The dollar index held above 100 as Middle East tensions boosted haven demand and reinforced expectations the Fed will keep rates elevated. The 2026 peak at 101.55 is the next upside target.
The dollar held steady Wednesday ahead of US inflation data. The yen hovered near 160 after the BOJ hike failed to sustain a rally. The CPI report due at 8:30 a.m. ET will set the tone for the Fed.
NAB survey shows confidence improved to -5 in June, retail prices fell for first time in seven years. Oil's jump to $85 threatens to reverse the gains.
Australia business confidence rose to -5 in June from -14, while conditions held at 3, the NAB survey showed. The improvement offers a bright spot for the economic outlook.
The rupee gave back most of its recent gains as dollar inflows slowed. State-run banks intervened lightly. The 96 level is the next test, with US payrolls on Friday setting the tone for EM currencies.
Singapore Q2 GDP grew 5.7% YoY, above forecasts, slowing from Q1's 6.3% ahead of MAS policy decision with conflict inflation risks.
NZIER survey window straddles ceasefire, China trade data diverges from GDP expectations. Both releases test whether Asia's recovery is real or borrowed.
Oil surged nearly 10% after the U.S. announced a total blockade of Iran and a 20% Strait toll. The dollar firmed as Fed's Waller flagged a potential July hike, pushing USD/JPY to 162.50.
Bank of America forecasts pound to fall to 1.28 by year-end on US outperformance and higher rates. GBP/USD near 1.3390 after rally.