WTI crude fell 5% after Trump canceled strikes on Iran, raising hopes of a deal. The move hit CAD and NOK while lifting the dollar. Natural gas also slid on a larger-than-expected storage build.
Alpha Score of 74 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
WTI crude fell 5% on Thursday after President Trump said he canceled planned military strikes against Iran. The move came as traders priced in a higher probability of a negotiated deal that would bring Iranian oil back to global markets.
Trump said discussions had been approved by all parties involved, though he did not list Iran among them. He also said a naval blockade of Iran would remain until a deal is finalized. Iran had not commented at the time of writing.
Recent reports of a face-to-face meeting between UAE and Iran officials reinforced the sense that the region is moving toward a peace agreement. The UAE had been one of the most hawkish voices after strikes disrupted flights and shook confidence in the country's status as a financial safe haven.
Transmission to currencies
The oil sell-off hit currencies tied to crude exports. The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback as WTI dropped below $87. The Norwegian krone also slipped. A deal that unlocks Iranian supply would add roughly 1-1.5 million barrels per day to a market already worried about demand, traders said.
The U.S. dollar gained broadly, helped by a stronger-than-expected PPI print earlier in the session. That combination – lower oil and a firmer dollar – put pressure on emerging market currencies that rely on commodity revenues.
Natural gas under its own weight
Natural gas futures sank after the EIA reported a storage build of 108 Bcf, above the 101 Bcf analysts expected. Stocks now sit 151 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year. Gas tried to hold support near $3.00 but broke below in afternoon trade. The next floor sits in the $2.75-$2.80 range.
Technical levels to watch
WTI oil is testing the $87.00 area. A clean break below that opens a run at $85.00-$85.50. Below that, $81.00-$81.50 is the next major support. Brent oil is trying to hold $91.00-$91.50. If that fails, the next zone is $86.00-$86.50.
The RSI on both crude benchmarks is not yet oversold, meaning further downside is possible if the Iran deal narrative gains traction. Traders said the next catalyst is any official statement from Iran or a confirmed date for resumed negotiations.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.