Oil Risk Climbs After Iran Says Hormuz Won't Return to Pre-War Status

Iran's state news agency IRNA reported Friday that Tehran made no commitment to restore the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war conditions under the agreement signed earlier this month. The clarification is forcing traders to reassess a deal that had been priced as a straightforward de-escalation path.

Until the IRNA statement, the market assumed the MoU would deliver a normal reopening of the strait within roughly 30 days of sanctions relief. Front-month Brent crude had fallen below $82 on that expectation. The dollar slipped from its highs. War-risk insurance premiums started to ease.

IRNA's version is different. Tehran has discussed a managed reopening under Iranian oversight–one that could include transit tolls, routing restrictions or selective access. Iranian officials have previously floated a fee system coordinated with Oman, charging ships based on vessel type and cargo. Even when the language softened from "tolls" to "service charges," the economic implication stayed the same: shipping through Hormuz becomes more expensive and more conditional than before the conflict.

The gap between those two scenarios is wide. A full return to pre-war traffic would have meant tanker flows normalized, supply chains smoothed out and the biggest energy chokepoint risk removed. A managed reopening with Iranian control preserves Tehran's leverage. That makes the risk premium in oil harder to shake off.

Traders said the IRNA report introduces a new layer of uncertainty heading into the weekend. Without a clear US response, risk appetite is likely to stay constrained. The next catalyst is any official statement from Washington acknowledging or denying Iran's interpretation. A denial could restore some of the deal optimism. A confirmation would push crude prices back toward recent highs.

The dollar found support Friday as the news crossed. The earlier risk-on rotation linked to the Hormuz deal had sent the dollar index below 100. If the geopolitical premium rebuilds, the greenback could regain ground against currencies tied to global growth, traders said.

West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $84.70 a barrel, up 1.2% on the session after the IRNA wires crossed. The contract had touched an intraday low of $82.90 earlier in the week. The next session opens Sunday evening with the strait's status unresolved.

For now, the burden is on Washington to clarify what it understood when it signed. The initial optimism around the deal assumed a clean de-escalation. The IRNA statement suggests the path is more complicated.