DAX forecast: Ceasefire optimism supports risk appetite

The ceasefire declaration remains a verbal statement. No formal agreement has been signed. Middle East tensions could reignite quickly. Traders will watch for any contradictory signals from Tehran or Washington.

U.S. futures pointed to a higher open. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Asian markets closed mixed. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.5%. China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%.

The next catalyst is Wednesday's German industrial production data for February. Economists expect a 0.3% month-on-month rise. The focus will be on the forward-looking orders component, which has been trending lower since mid-2024.

Oil below $80 supports the rally. A reversal would test the DAX's 18,500 support level. Resistance sits at 18,700, the March high. A close above that would open the path toward 19,000. On the downside, a break below 18,500 would put the 50-day moving average at 18,200 in play.

The drop in oil also benefits Germany's inflation outlook. Lower fuel prices reduce cost pressures across the economy, giving the ECB more room to cut rates. That would further support equities.