Oil Breaks Below $82 as Iran-US Deal Details Spook Traders

Technically, the break below the 100-day moving average near $85.40 triggered stop-loss selling, pushing the contract toward $80.40 before a slight bounce. The next support level sits at $80.00, a psychological line that has held since late February. A close below that mark would open the path to the 200-day moving average near $78.50.

The triangle pattern that contained price action through March and April broke to the downside on the MOU news. Open interest on WTI futures rose 12% Monday, suggesting new short positions are being built rather than old longs liquidated.

For the deal to hold, Iran would need to relax its Strait of Hormuz posture within the 60-day window. The country currently controls passage for roughly 17% of global seaborne crude. A full normalization would likely push WTI back toward the $70s, traders said. A failure to deliver on the naval component would reverse the drop equally fast.

The weekly COT data shows managed-money funds were net long crude by roughly 3:1 entering this week – a positioning that leaves room for further liquidation if the technical breakdown extends.