Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Beijing releases a third 62.5 billion yuan trade-in tranche after May retail sales fell 0.6%. Goldman Sachs says China's demand destruction kept oil below triple digits.
Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara said Tokyo is watching FX moves closely and stands ready to act, while noting the weak yen raises household burdens even as it supports corporate profits.
The Fed's updated dot plot shows one hike in 2026, reversing the prior easing bias. The 10-year yield surged, growth stocks sold off, and the dollar hit a two-month high. Gold recovered from an initial drop as competing macro drivers pulled in opposite directions.
Dollar index at 103.50, highest since mid-April, after strong US data upends rate-cut bets. Yen near 141.80, approaching intervention zone ahead of BOJ meeting.
New Zealand Q1 GDP is expected at 0.9% quarterly growth. Seasonal adjustments may flatter the headline. The Iran conflict threatens a Q2 contraction. The RBNZ July 8 meeting is the next catalyst.
The dollar rose 0.6% after the Fed held rates steady and upgraded its dot plot to one hike by year-end, reversing the cut bets that had built since January.
Front-end yields rose and the dollar strengthened after Warsh's hawkish press conference, pushing back expectations for a near-term rate cut. Stocks and metals fell.
Crude inventories fell 8.3M barrels vs 4.6M forecast; oil pulls back as Trump signals Iran deal could be signed soon. Technical levels for WTI, Brent, natural gas.
Headline CPI missed forecasts at 2.8% but services inflation accelerated to 3.7%. The BoE meets Thursday with a mixed picture. GBP slipped 0.2% before stabilising near $1.2680.
Brent crude fell 15% in four sessions to the 200-day moving average at $77.86, where oversold conditions suggest a pause. Upside is capped near the $82–$90 zone before bears resume selling. A breakdown opens $73 and $70.
Real retail sales rose 0.4% in May, beating forecasts. The control group gained 0.7%. TD sees consumer spending holding near 2% through year-end. Fed dot plot next.
Pending home sales rose 3.8% in May, far exceeding the 0.8% estimate, with all four U.S. regions posting gains. The data points to a housing market gradually regaining momentum despite mortgage rates above 6%.
Natural gas July contract lingers in seasonal range. Analyst flags $2.75 downside risk and selling opportunity on heat-wave spikes. EIA storage report and weather forecasts are next.
G7 leaders at the France summit reaffirmed their FX commitment as oil volatility roils markets. The statement locks in the stance against competitive devaluation with no change from 2017 principles.
ECB policymaker Olaf Sleijpen says another inflation spike is less probable but cannot be ruled out. The remarks reinforce caution on rate cuts, supporting the euro.
May retail sales rose 0.9%, beating the 0.5% estimate and pushing September rate-cut odds below 30%. The two-year yield rose six basis points on the print.
Sterling held $1.2865 after UK CPI printed below forecasts at 2.5%. All eyes turn to Thursday's BoE decision and labour data for the next directional cue.
Brent crude broke below $76 as the U.S.-Iran deal held for a fourth week, with traders targeting $68. The IEA report Wednesday could confirm the widest supply surplus since 2020.
Rupee closes unchanged at 94.52 as an oil-led rally meets heavy dollar demand from importers. All eyes on the Fed decision and Thursday's WPI print.
Strong May jobs (+172k) and sticky CPI erased rate cut hopes. CME FedWatch shows 70% December hike probability. Semis, REITs, small caps hit.
Eurozone May CPI confirmed at 3.2% y/y, the highest since September 2023. Services inflation rose to 3.5%, pushing core to 2.6%. The ECB meets next week with a 25bp cut priced in, but sticky services argue against a rapid easing cycle.
The US-Iran ceasefire stripped the risk premium from Brent crude, sending prices below $70. RSI at 28 signals oversold but no capitulation; the technical breakdown targets $62.
The dollar holds near multi-week highs against the yen and loonie as traders await the Fed decision and updated rate projections. USD/JPY tests 160, USD/CAD eyes 1.4000.
UK inflation held above forecasts while German sentiment jumped, leaving the Pound to Euro rate rangebound near 1.1560. The standoff awaits the next macro catalyst.
Warsh's first Fed press conference as chair pits a likely dovish tone against 4% inflation and 20bps of rate‑hike pricing. The balancing act will set the dollar and yield direction.
Asia FX held tight ranges ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's first policy test. A softer oil price on the Iran deal supported importers, while China's bond plan and PBOC comments added a yuan twist.
Brent crude broke below $80 support, accelerating the C-wave of an ABC correction. Under Elliott wave theory, the next target is $75, with confirmation signals to watch.
China's NFRA named real estate, local debt, and small banks as systemic risks. The pledge to steer capital toward emerging industries signals a continued tilt away from old-economy sectors.
Crude tumbled 2% on Iran supply prospects, pulling bond yields lower. The dollar slipped, commodity currencies weakened. All eyes on Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting next week.
The rupee rose for a third day as Brent crude fell about 2%, cutting India's import bill. Traders watch OPEC+ and U.S. inventory data for the next move.