Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
BofA sees three dollar tailwinds for H2: hyperscaler capex demand, a hawkish Fed, and Hormuz risk. Sterling slipped to $1.3446, euro to $1.1442.
WTI crude holds near $78.50 as the 50-day EMA caps gains for a third session. Traders cite weekend Middle East risk premium. A break above $79.50 or below $77.50 sets the next leg.
June CPI due Monday: headline seen easing to 2.8% y/y on lower energy costs. Core inflation expected to hold near 2% target, supporting BoC's hold-through-2026 stance.
Natural gas futures stalled near $2.90 Friday as summer heatwaves failed to draw down storage. The August contract remains range-bound with resistance at $3.00 and the 200-day EMA above that level.
University of Michigan index rose to 54.4 in July, driven by easing gasoline prices. Inflation expectations moderated but remain elevated.
June housing starts hit 1.427M annualized, a 19% monthly surge that crushed the 1.310M consensus. Building permits missed estimates, falling 3%.
European stocks fall after tech rout in Asia; WTI crude tops $81 on Iran conflict; dollar mixed, gold rises to $3,992. S&P 500 futures down 0.8%.
The dollar reversed a two-day slide on Thursday. Fed hawkishness, strong retail sales, and Middle East tensions support the greenback. USD/JPY heads to 170 by 2027, says Kshitij.
The rupee closed at 96.28, its steepest weekly fall in three months, as a jump in crude prices widened India's trade deficit and pressured the currency.
Eurozone consumer inflation cooled to 2.8% in June, as services and core price pressures moderated. Energy still accounts for 0.77 pp of headline inflation.
Eurozone headline inflation confirmed at 2.8% in June, with energy prices falling 1.8% and core inflation cooling to 3.2%, giving the ECB room to wait through summer.
The dollar held near 104.50 as Middle East tensions lifted safe-haven demand. Traders await housing starts and import price data later Friday.
Japan's finance minister reiterated that monetary policy is the BOJ's domain. Fiscal worries and cost-push inflation keep the yen under pressure. USD/JPY grinds higher with intervention risk.
UK GDP rose 0.4% in May, double forecasts, pushing BOE rate-cut bets lower and keeping GBP/EUR near a 13-month high at €1.1794.
VLCC and LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit zero Wednesday as the IRGC escalates. Oil flows are limited to Iranian exports via the northern corridor.
Oil spiked after the US struck bridges near Bandar Abbas to cut Iran's supply routes; a second wave of attacks hit Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Japan's Nikkei fell 4.5% on tech-led selling.
Jefferson said the Fed could raise rates if inflation does not cool, citing tariffs, oil prices and AI-driven demand as upside risks to the 2% target.
Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan broke with colleagues by publicly advocating higher rates. She argued inflation is not on a clear path back to 2% and that the AI boom is already boosting demand.
Kansas City Fed's Schmid said it's "premature to put too much weight" on a single CPI print and that inflation shocks are "not intrinsically transitory."
Trump declassified intelligence alleging Chinese election interference, contradicting his own agencies. The rhetoric risks derailing the trade detente and a planned September Trump-Xi meeting. AUD has already marked down.
Traders unwound rate-hike bets after soft U.S. retail sales and PPI data. The dollar index fell 1% on the week as the yen, euro, and sterling rallied.
The rupee fell 9 paise to 85.91 per dollar as broad-based dollar demand from importers and banks kept the currency under pressure, with the RBI likely intervening through state-run banks.
Hoisington Investment Management cut duration from 21 years to under one, citing structural deficits and AI-driven borrowing. Inflation seen at 3.5%-4.5% with spikes above 5%.
WTI crude stalls at $81.59 after a 20.5% rally from the low. A breakout above resistance near $81.94 could open the path toward $85.20.
ING analysts see EUR/GBP heading toward 0.8400 as sterling's short squeeze continues. The pound's rally has room to run, they said, with momentum still strong.
Crude oil fell as traders focused on potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, while the dollar gained after retail sales met estimates. Natural gas storage data came in below consensus.
Natural gas futures consolidated ahead of the EIA inventory report. A 6.6% storage surplus and production above 111 Bcf/d keep bears in control. Weather heat provides near-term support, but an in-line storage build would leave the supply overhang intact.
Crude oil stuck between 200-day and 50-day EMAs, with $70 support and $85 resistance from Brent, as US-Iran geopolitical risk keeps traders waiting for a catalyst.
Pending home sales fell 5.4% in June, ten times the expected decline, as mortgage rates above 6.8% crushed buyer demand. Builder confidence also missed, with the NAHB index slipping to 34.
Dollar index held above 100 support after June CPI came in softer than expected. Traders said the bullish structure remains intact as long as that level holds.