
The rupee rose for a third day as Brent crude fell about 2%, cutting India's import bill. Traders watch OPEC+ and U.S. inventory data for the next move.
The rupee strengthened for a third consecutive session, supported by a decline in crude oil prices that reduces India's import bill, traders said. Brent crude fell about 2% over the period, with the move accelerating after a breakdown toward the 200-day moving average, as detailed in Crude Oil Breakdown Extends Toward 200-Day Moving Average at $74.
India imports roughly 85% of its crude oil. Lower oil cuts the dollar demand from importers that typically weighs on the currency. The rupee had lost about 3% since January before this three-day rebound.
The Reserve Bank of India has been selling dollars in the spot market to slow the rupee's depreciation. A cheaper energy bill reduces the need for such intervention, preserving foreign-currency reserves. India's reserves stood at about $650 billion as of the latest week, down from a peak near $700 billion, two traders said.
Speculative shorts on the rupee have accumulated in recent months. A sustained pullback in oil could force some of those shorts to unwind, adding to the rupee's short-term bounce. The broader trend remains tied to the dollar's strength and foreign portfolio outflows from Indian equities, which have totaled roughly $2 billion so far this quarter.
The next catalysts for the pair are the OPEC+ meeting this week and U.S. inventory data due Wednesday. Traders said a larger crude decline would reinforce the rupee's relief rally, while a reversal above $80 a barrel would test the RBI's resolve again.
For broader context on currency positioning and intervention, see forex market analysis.
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