Brent Oil: Bears Pause at 200DMA After 15% Drop

A bounce from the 200DMA looks probable, traders said. The correction should remain limited. The broken Fibo 61.8% retracement at $81.91 marks the first upside target. Above that, Monday's high of $85.29 and the $89–$90 zone – which includes the fallen 50% retracement and the declining 10DMA – are likely to cap any rally. The zone has acted as solid resistance in recent days. Bears said they would look to reload there, waiting for the uptick to exhaust itself before pushing fresh shorts.

If the 200DMA breaks on a sustained basis, the next targets are $73.04, the 76.4% Fibo, and the $70 psychological level. The International Energy Agency projects a six million barrel per day supply excess in 2027, with demand growth of only two million barrels per day. That structural overhang reinforces the long-term bearish case, traders said. The IEA forecast means any corrective rally is a selling opportunity for those looking beyond a few weeks.

A clean break of $77.86 exposes the $73.04 Fibo and the $70 handle. Until then, the path of least resistance is a grind higher into resistance, traders said.