AlphaScala Daily: NKE cluster buy, KGC tops the model

Good morning.

Four Nike insiders bought in the last 30 days for a net $2.17M, the loudest name on today's signal tape by a wide margin. TSM logged a broader cluster, ten buyers, though the net came to just $45K. Gold sits at $4,067 with Kinross (KGC) near the top of the model at 79, alongside U.S. Bancorp; Grupo Cibest leads at 83. Over in Washington, Jim Himes sold both BAC and XOM. Here's what matters.

Markets

• USD/JPY 157.57 ▲ +0.23% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• XAU/USD 4,067.59 ▲ +0.30% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,872.12 ▲ +0.62% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 63,834.6 ▲ +0.50% (BTC)

Deal Flow

IPOs / Listings

• Bithumb Targets 2028 IPO After Two-Year Compliance Overhaul (CoinPedia) Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after a two-year compliance overhaul, switching to global accounting standards and strengthening internal controls before filing for a preliminary review…
• Bithumb Targets 2028 IPO as Regulatory Scrutiny Mounts (Coincu) South Korea's Bithumb pushes IPO target to 2028, citing regulatory scrutiny per Korean reports. No venue or financials confirmed. The timeline is provisional.
• Bithumb Sets 2028 IPO Roadmap Amid Legal Challenges (Decrypt) Bithumb plans a 2028 IPO via a three-stage process, starting with internal controls and K-IFRS adoption. The exchange faces a $24.5M fine, a CEO bribery probe, and a disputed…
• Bithumb Eyes 2028 IPO as Bitget Exits Japan (Coinspress) Bithumb is overhauling governance for a post-2028 IPO while Bitget exits Japan entirely. The split shows how compliance costs now decide where exchanges operate.
• Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after internal restructuring (CoinDesk) Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after restructuring. The exchange plans risk management upgrades by end-2026, with a preliminary review in 2027. CEO admitted internal control flaws after…
• Bithumb Maps 2028 IPO After $43B Error, Regulatory Overhaul (Coingape) Bithumb targets 2028 IPO after recovering from a $43B Bitcoin error. The exchange is overhauling governance ahead of South Korea's 22% crypto gains tax taking effect in January…
• Bithumb targets 2028 IPO with governance overhaul (Crypto news) Bithumb outlined a three-year IPO roadmap for 2028, with K-IFRS conversion, a Bithumb Asset spin-off, and regular crypto holdings disclosure, as it works through privacy and AML…

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Pfizer tops estimates, lifts revenue guidance on non-Covid strength (CNBC) Pfizer Q2 revenue $15.03B, adjusted EPS 77c beat estimates. Raised revenue outlook to $60.5-$62.5B, cut Covid forecast. Non-Covid products added $1.5B.
• Merck beats Q2, raises revenue forecast, cuts profit on deal charges (CNBC) Merck beat Q2 estimates and raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $66.3-$67.3B, cutting profit guidance on a $5.7B Terns deal charge. Keytruda sales rose 5%.
• Zalando warns on 2026 growth, shares fall 9% (Retailgazette) Zalando says 2026 GMV and revenue will land at the low end of its 12-17% target range. Shares fell 9% pre-market in Frankfurt. Q2 adjusted EBIT rose 10% to €205m.

Macro

• JioStar sent back to Delhi HC by SC in TRAI tariff challenge (Mint) JioStar must return to the Delhi High Court after the Supreme Court refused to take over its challenge to TRAI's TV pricing rules. Core arguments: tariff orders vs regulations,…

Stocks

• Power Grid Lags Behind India's $250 Billion Data Centre Push (Mint) Transmission infrastructure takes 3-4 years while data centres are built in 12-18 months, creating a standoff over who pays for upgrades. States race to install new sub-stations.
• EU Hits Temu Owner With Obstruction Case Over Subsidy Probe (Yahoo) EU alleges Temu obstructed a foreign-subsidies inspection in Dublin, risking a fine of up to 1% of PDD's global turnover. Temu denies the claims.
• Techtronic Industries First-Half Profit Rises to $738 Million (Manilatimes) TTI's Professional segment grew 9.7% as Milwaukee and Ryobi powered record first-half revenue of $8.3 billion. Interim dividend raised 20%.
• New Auction Mechanism Distorts Nifty Close, Ends Four-Day Rally (Rediff) The new closing auction for F&O stocks skewed Nifty's close, down 159 points to 24,614.90, as traders recalibrated after Monday's auction lifted heavyweights.
• Burry's SOXX Short Made 21% in a Month as Chip ETF Crashed (BI) Michael Burry's short of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) at $643 paid off with a 21% drop in July. He has doubled down and holds puts targeting the low-to-mid $400s by March…
• Cash Optimization Apps: Hidden Costs Could Trim Yields (Mint) Liquid fund investments via apps like Multipl and Simply Save offer higher returns. Exit loads and no deposit insurance can trim those yields. Here's what to watch.
• Who Must File ITR by 31 August? ITR-3, ITR-4 and No Audit (Mint) India's 31 August ITR deadline covers only ITR-3 and ITR-4 filers not liable for audit. Section 44AB: ₹1 crore turnover, ₹50 lakh professional receipts.
• Radian sells title, real estate units to PLACE in specialty insurer pivot (Reinsurancene) Radian Group divests its Title and Real Estate Services businesses to PLACE, completing the first phase of its transformation into a global multi-line specialty insurer after the…

Crypto

• South Africa Brings Crypto Under Cross-Border Capital Rules (Crypto Briefing) Draft rules replace the 1961 Exchange Control Regulations after a High Court ruling left crypto in a regulatory gap. Fines reach R1 million. Comments due June 30.
• Tokenized QQQ drove 288% of July volume; Robinhood Chain bets on it (Crypto news) Tokenized QQQB drove July's 288% volume jump. Robinhood's free-gas window ends Sept. 30, and the DTCC's tokenized network follows in October.
• Umbra Privacy attacker met stake threshold, futarchy rejected $1.5M drain (Crypto Briefing) An attacker met the minimum stake threshold to propose draining Umbra's treasury, but MetaDAO's decision market rejected the malicious bid at 28% odds.
• CLARITY Act odds sink to 27% after Senate delays crypto bill (CryptoSlate) CLARITY Act odds fall to 27% as Tyler Williams, Harry Jung, Hester Peirce, and Cynthia Lummis leave federal crypto roles before the Senate votes on market structure legislation.
• Wells Fargo builds tokenized deposits on Cosmos, files WFUSD trademark (Crypto Briefing) Wells Fargo is building a tokenized deposit engine on Cosmos, joining a mega-bank consortium and filing a trademark for WFUSD as traditional finance races to make stablecoins…
• Coinbase CEO Ties CLARITY Act to Voter Sentiment Before Senate Vote (Benzinga) Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong cited voter polls showing 70% of Americans want crypto rules as the Senate prepares to vote on the CLARITY Act. He called the bill a "win for the…
• Ex-FBI Agent Charged With Stealing $1M in Crypto From Probe Target (Coinpaper) A former FBI agent used internal bureau credentials to steal nearly $1M in crypto from an adversarial nation's wallets, court records allege. The case turned on a Signal…
• Clarity Act odds drop to 37% as Senate stalls; Bernstein warns selloff (Crypto news) Bernstein says failure would trigger a selloff; JPMorgan warns tokenization may shift to traditional infrastructure. Prediction markets imply 37% chance of passage.

Forex / Commodities

• Natural Gas Reverses Monday's Bounce on Production, Storage Pressure (FXEmpire) September natural gas futures fell 1.4% to $2.743. Rising production and a storage surplus offset a five-day high in LNG feedgas. Europe's storage deficit keeps a floor under…
• RBI Policy, New Auction Rule Drag Nifty Below 24,650 (BL) India's Nifty falls 0.64% as RBI policy decision and new closing auction mechanism spook traders; LIC plunges 8.7% on government stake sale at steep discount. Crude rebound adds…
• Iran seeks Hormuz shipping fees in Oman deal, US objects (Forex Live) Iran would control inbound Gulf shipping and collect security fees under a deal with Oman. US Secretary of State Rubio warned the arrangement would set a dangerous precedent for…
• NVRO Metals Appoints Agnico Eagle Director Jonathan Gill to Board (Manilatimes) Jonathan Gill, a 50-year mining veteran and Agnico Eagle director, joins NVRO Metals as technical advisor and director nominee. The AGM is set for Oct. 7.
• July NFP Preview: +80k Jobs Expected, Fed Unlikely to Shift (Forex Live) The July payrolls report is the first US labour data before the Fed's September meeting. With +80k expected, only a significant deviation would alter the rate path. CPI looms…
• Cabot Corp (CBT) Downgraded on Limited Upside Through 2028 (SA) A Seeking Alpha analyst downgraded Cabot Corp (CBT), citing limited upside through 2027-2028. The analyst holds a long position and sees weaker returns. The Alpha Score is 57.
• Banks, Miners Push ASX 200 to Brink of All-Time High (Businessnews) The S&P/ASX 200 is within striking distance of its March 2022 record as easing oil costs and earnings optimism lift heavyweight sectors. Traders see a catch-up trade.
• Aramco Q2 Profit Jumps 33%; July Attacks Had No Material Impact (Financialpost) Aramco's Q2 profit hit $33.4B on war-driven prices. CEO says 12M b/d capacity is intact; east-west pipeline growth is in the works to counter Hormuz disruption.

Smart Money

• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE ARCC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE BAC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE XOM
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE HD
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 83/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 83 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: USB (U.S. Bancorp), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 176,310 contracts, 47.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 47,668 contracts, 45.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): hedge funds net short 163,412 contracts, 37.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: S&P 500 rises 1.07% as Amazon's 15% surge offsets Apple's 7% drop
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq 100 adds 0.86% as MSFT, NVDA rise; AAPL tumbles 7.35% on earnings
• Forex: Pound gains 0.79% vs dollar; yen shorts hit 35.9% open interest
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week
• Gold: Gold flat at $4,056 as BTC rallies 2.6%, QQQ slides 2.3%

See you tomorrow before the bell.