Forex majors flat; COT shows heavy GBP, EUR shorts, yen longs extend
Reviewing Oct 5–11, 2026 · outlook and calls for Oct 12–18, 2026
Major currency pairs barely moved through the week to Oct. 11, with EUR/USD at 1.1193 and cable at 1.3237. The Commitment of Traders report for Oct. 6 showed large speculators holding near-record short positions in sterling and the euro, while yen longs grew. With no high-impact data on the calendar, the positioning skew is the week's main story.
COT Report Shows Heavy Shorts in Sterling and Euro
The dollar was little changed against the euro and pound in a week devoid of major catalysts. EUR/USD traded at 1.1193, down 0.02% on the session, while GBP/USD added 0.05% to 1.3237. USD/JPY edged up 0.08% to 158.46.
The CFTC's weekly positioning data, released Oct. 6, revealed that large speculators were net short 97,611 contracts of sterling, representing 36.7% of open interest. Euro net shorts stood at 99,332 contracts, or 11.4% of open interest. The yen was the outlier: large specs were net long 62,325 contracts, 16.9% of open interest, extending a bullish bet that has been building for weeks.
Equity markets offered a mixed backdrop. The S&P 500 added 0.48% for the week, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.65%. Gold and bitcoin were both flat on the session, with gold near $4,429 and bitcoin around $79,569.
Outlook · Oct 12–18, 2026
The heavy speculative short in sterling and the euro leaves both pairs vulnerable to a short squeeze on any upside surprise, though no high-importance events are scheduled. The yen's net long position, while smaller in absolute terms, is the largest among the three and could unwind quickly if the Bank of Japan signals caution. The next COT report, due Oct. 13, will show whether the positioning extremes persisted through the quiet week.
Calls to watch
Forward-looking statements covering Oct 12–18, 2026. Each is logged and will be scored against what happens.
- 70%GBP net short position remains above 90,000 contracts in the Oct. 13 COT report. · next COT release · GBP
- 60%EUR/USD stays below 1.12 through Oct. 18 without a major data catalyst. · through Oct. 18 · EUR/USD
Sources
- CFTC Commitments of Traders Report
Grounded in AlphaScala signals and coverage. Educational only, not investment advice. Methodology: how briefings are produced.