Forex Majors Weekly Briefing: Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026
Sterling gains 0.3% as dollar flat; COT shows heavy euro shorts, yen longs
By AlphaScala Research DeskPublished Reviewing Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026 · outlook and calls for Nov 2–8, 2026
The dollar traded in a narrow range against major currencies last week, with the pound up 0.32% and the euro down 0.14%. CFTC data showed large speculators holding a near-record short in the euro and a sizable long in the yen, setting the stage for position-driven moves in a data-light week ahead. The next CFTC report is due November 3.
The dollar was little changed against the euro and yen in the week through November 1, while sterling edged up 0.32% to $1.3389. The moves came as equities fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.26% and the Nasdaq 100 off 3.04%, but the currency market showed little risk-off impulse beyond a modest bid for the yen.
EUR/USD slipped 0.14% to $1.1163, extending its recent grind lower. CFTC data released October 27 showed large speculators net short 143,894 euro contracts, or 16.6% of open interest, one of the largest bearish positions in years. The pound's gain came as speculators held a net short of 79,414 contracts (31.3% of OI), a position that can fuel rallies when shorts cover. USD/JPY was virtually flat at ¥157.58, with large specs net long 101,591 yen contracts (27.2% of OI), a position that has kept the pair from breaking above 158.
| Currency | Net Position | % of OI |
|---|---|---|
| EUR | -143,894 | 16.6% |
| GBP | -79,414 | 31.3% |
| JPY | +101,591 | 27.2% |
The data shows a market heavily short the euro and long the yen, leaving both pairs sensitive to any shift in sentiment.
Outlook · Nov 2–8, 2026
No high-importance events are scheduled for the coming week, putting the focus on position squaring. The next CFTC Commitments of Traders report is due November 3, and any reduction in the euro short or yen long could trigger sharp moves. The large speculative positions make both EUR/USD and USD/JPY vulnerable to sudden reversals.
Calls to watch
Forward-looking statements covering Nov 2–8, 2026. Each is logged and will be scored against what happens.
- 65%EUR/USD remains below 1.1200 through the week ending November 8, as the large speculative short caps rallies. · this week · EUR/USD
- 60%GBP/USD stays above 1.3300, with short covering providing support. · this week · GBP/USD
- 70%USD/JPY fails to break above 158.00, given the net long yen position. · this week · USD/JPY
Sources
- CFTC Commitments of Traders (via AlphaScala)
CFTC positioning: US Dollar Index (DXY) COT report, Euro (EUR) COT report, British Pound (GBP) COT report, Japanese Yen (JPY) COT report
Grounded in AlphaScala signals and coverage. Educational only, not investment advice. Methodology: how briefings are produced.