Dollar gains across G10; yen weakens despite 120K speculative longs
Reviewing Sep 14–20, 2026 · outlook and calls for Sep 21–27, 2026
The dollar strengthened against all three major pairs this week, with USD/JPY climbing 1.64% even as CFTC data showed large speculators held a net long of 120,359 yen contracts. Sterling fell 0.80% alongside a heavy net short, and the euro slipped 0.57% on light positioning. The next CFTC report on Sept 22 will offer a first look at whether the yen longs held through the rally.
The dollar posted broad gains. The euro slipped 0.57% to $1.14858, while speculators kept a net short of 26,993 contracts (2.9% of open interest), according to the CFTC’s Sept 15 report. Sterling fell 0.80% to $1.33934, with a net short of 58,715 contracts (18.7% OI). USD/JPY rose 1.64% to ¥156.88, even as large specs held a net long of 120,359 contracts (22.2% OI), the biggest outright bullish position in G10 currencies.
The yen long is the standout. The position is more than double sterling’s net short and four times the euro’s. The yen’s 1.64% decline therefore inflicted a sharp mark-to-market loss. The CFTC data captures positions through Sept 15, so much of that loss occurred after the snapshot. If those accounts did not trim, the pain continued.
Bitcoin rose 3.64%, gold added 1.90%, and the S&P 500 edged up 0.11%.
Outlook · Sep 21–27, 2026
The next CFTC commitments report, due Sept 22, will show whether the 120,359-contract yen long held steady. A drop below 100,000 contracts would signal that speculators capitulated after the dollar’s 1.64% weekly gain.
Calls to watch
Forward-looking statements covering Sep 21–27, 2026. Each is logged and will be scored against what happens.
- 60%USD/JPY closes above 156.50 on Sept 22, the date of the next CFTC report. · by Sept 22 · USD/JPY
- 70%GBP/USD stays below 1.3400 through Sept 22. · by Sept 22 · GBP/USD
Sources
- CFTC Commitments of Traders (Sept 15)
Grounded in AlphaScala signals and coverage. Educational only, not investment advice. Methodology: how briefings are produced.