Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Drone strikes on Russian refineries threaten to rebuild a crude oil risk premium. WTI near $77, RSI oversold. Key level: $80. EIA report Wednesday.
Two-year yield falls from 4.20% peak. Euro, yen, sterling test key levels. PBOC sets yuan reference at three-year lows. Canada jobs, Mexico CPI ahead.
Employment report and Business Outlook Survey due Monday and Friday. Jobs seen +10k, unemployment steady at 6.6%. Wage growth slowing. Data will test whether BoC stays on hold.
Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening shrank its balance sheet by 15.6% since early 2024. Long-term yields surged past 4% while the yen stabilized. Here is how the mechanism works and what comes next.
Natural gas holds 20-day MA support as volatility compresses. A break above $3.33 opens $3.40 resistance; failure risks a drop toward $2.80.
WTI crude settled near $71.50 as a $2-$3 Hormuz risk premium persists. A close below $68 would signal the premium has fully unwound, FOREX.com analyst says. The next OPEC+ meeting is Aug. 3.
Sterling pushed to $1.2770 after the dollar index slid 1.7% on the week. The June payrolls miss shifted rate-cut expectations, narrowing the US-UK rate differential to 25bp. Next test: Thursday's CPI print.
Japan's Rengo confirms 5.01% average wage hike for third straight year. The data reinforces the BOJ's rate-hike path, though Middle East risks and Fed policy complicate the yen outlook.
GBP/USD held near 1.3366 after BoE data showed lending conditions improving. Pantheon Macroeconomics says lower mortgage rates could boost UK growth, reinforcing sterling's support.
UK services PMI fell to 48.8 in June, the lowest since January 2023. Demand weakened for a fourth month. Input cost inflation eased. The data supports BoE rate cut expectations.
France's final services PMI fell to 46.8 from a preliminary 47.4. The downturn still eased from May. Cost pressures softened for the first time since the Middle East conflict, a positive for ECB policy.
Japan's top currency diplomat said officials are watching markets with high urgency. A weaker US jobs report pulled the dollar lower, giving the yen some relief. USD/JPY at 160.78.
US growth above 2% and oil slide ease inflation fears, keeping the dollar bid. Canadian GDP bounces but BoC stays on hold. Next week's jobs and BOS data test the view.
GBP/EUR touched €1.1696 as UK political risk fades and softer eurozone inflation caps ECB hawkishness. The next test is €1.17 resistance, with UK services inflation due next week.
The dollar index slipped from a 15-month peak after jobless claims surprised to the upside, sending September rate-hike odds to 70%. Next week's CPI will decide if the pullback deepens.
Japan's services PMI rebounded to 52.2 in June, but input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years, keeping the BOJ on alert for persistent inflation pressures.
RBA minutes show board ready to hike; US payrolls miss at 57k, ISM prices fall; Euro area inflation slows to 2.8%. Policy divergence sets up FX moves.
US markets closed for July 4th after a disappointing non-farm payrolls report. Thin liquidity could trigger Japan intervention on USD/JPY. Also monitor US-Iran headlines.
The rupee rose to 95.16 per dollar in early trade Friday. Traders said strong importer dollar demand and RBI's reserve-rebuilding focus cap further upside.
Services PMI hit 50.5 in June, but new orders fell for a fourth month and business confidence sank to a 2.5-year low. The RBA gets little signal here.
Crude oil hit $67.73 before buyers stepped in, testing a support zone that could determine whether the long-term bull trend resumes or breaks down.
Natural gas broke below its 20-day MA and uptrend line, opening a path toward the 50-day MA near $3.02. A reclaim of $3.21 would negate the bearish setup.
China's June Caixin services PMI is expected at 53.0, down slightly from May. A print at or above that level would confirm factory momentum is spreading to domestic demand.
Soft payrolls data shifts Fed expectations, pulling forward the first cut to September. DXY holds above 50-day MA but faces a make-or-break zone. Wednesday's CPI decides.
The dollar fell after June payrolls missed estimates, lifting EUR/USD above 1.14 and GBP/USD past 1.33. The data eased Fed hike fears, but the real driver was crowded positioning unwinding. Next up: July CPI.
June payrolls cratered to 57,000, far below the 190,000 consensus, sending the dollar to a three-week low. Markets now price a 70% chance of a September Fed cut. The next catalyst is the July 11 CPI report.
Catherine Mann says looser financial conditions since June will influence her vote. The hawkish stance supports GBP via rate differentials, with UK data due before the August meeting.
The dollar's recent surge has support from resilient data and Treasury yields. Credit Agricole expects some advantages to diminish as the US economy slows and rate differentials compress. The July CPI report is the next catalyst.
The June NFP miss kept the dollar in a narrow range as traders focused on the July CPI for the next catalyst. Wage growth held steady, preventing a sharper selloff. Fed on hold through summer.
Job growth slowed to 57k in June, well below the 114k forecast. Unemployment fell to 4.2% on a participation drop. Wage growth held at 3.5%. The July data will be key.