Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
September natural gas futures trade lower ahead of the EIA storage report. A 31 Bcf build is expected. The contract faces resistance at $2.798–$2.840, a zone that has capped four straight rallies.
EUR tests $1.1510 support, GBP fails at $1.3545, CAD edges higher. Gold volatile near $4400. US 10yr yield falls 3bp after deficit data. UK GDP 0.4% Q2.
EIA cut Q3 price view to $2.87/MMBtu. A low-volume wedge breakout and record inventories raise doubts about natural gas upside. RSI signal incomplete.
UK Q2 GDP grew 0.4% as expected, slowing from Q1. Services led while construction fell. The data keeps the BoE on a gradual path. Sterling edged higher.
Japan's July PPI held near 7.3% y/y, reinforcing BOJ September hike bets. Norges Bank held at 4.25%. UK GDP and US PPI also in focus.
July inflation prints in line with consensus, keeping the Fed on hold for now. Markets now turn to Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on September policy.
The dollar rallied broadly after July CPI matched forecasts, lowering the probability of a September Fed hike to 39%. Yields mixed, stocks mostly higher, AI shares surged.
Natural gas presses against $2.81 resistance; a daily close above the level opens a path to $2.99, while a break below $2.74 risks a pullback to $2.70.
August core PCE estimates cluster near +0.2% after CPI. Pantheon sees a 3.2% annual rate. But September jobs, PPI, and CPI all drop before the Sept 16-17 FOMC meeting.
July core CPI returned to 2.5% y/y, matching pre-war levels. The dollar weakened. August data will test whether the renewed oil surge feeds into inflation.
A hot CPI would send USD broadly higher, testing cable support at 1.2800 and USD/CHF resistance at 0.8140. A soft print revives September rate cut bets.
Nvidia's $500B AI financing plan bets GPUs hold value like hard assets. China price war risk, Red Sea fatalities, and yen slide toward 160 dominate markets.
API reported a 9.1M-barrel crude build while Hormuz traffic collapsed. Arslan sees WTI bullish above $81.60, natural gas at $2.79. EIA data due today.
The US Treasury sold euros to buy yen, arresting the slide temporarily. With Japan's debt costs rising and policy tensions deepening, the yen is weakening again. The carry trade faces renewed risk.
Oil swings between $87 and $90 as Mideast headlines drive the session. US CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the next catalyst for rates, dollar and risk appetite.
Oil gains on Iran tensions; Kospi jumps 3.5% on chip rally; USD steady ahead of CPI. North Korea launches missile; Trump considers capital gains tax relief.
The yen has given back half the gains from the U.S.-Japan intervention as the yield gap persists, with analysts saying BOJ policy is key to a sustained reversal. The next BOJ meeting is in September.
The Fair Work Commission's ruling requires platforms to pay delivery workers for engaged time, with a joint statement from Uber Eats and DoorDash backing the change.
The dollar held steady as traders waited for U.S. CPI data that could shape rate-cut bets. The yen hovered near 38-year lows. Oil rose after Red Sea attacks.
Japan's 2-year yield hit 1.63%, the highest since 1995, as oil's rally added to imported inflation pressure. The yen hasn't followed, with traders watching US CPI data due Wednesday.
Japan's manufacturers' confidence index rose to plus 18 in August, the highest since March, driven by semiconductor demand. The Reuters Tankan survey showed broad gains across chemicals and machinery, while transport equipment was flat. The data will feed expectations for the BOJ's quarterly Tankan release.
Natural gas hit $2.82 but closed below $2.81, keeping bears in control. A daily close above that level is needed to open the path toward $2.93 and $2.99.
Crude fails to hold gains above the 50-day EMA as conflicting Middle East headlines fuel whipsaw trading. WTI slips back below $80 after an early push to $80.35.
AUD leads after RBA keeps a hike on the table. USD and CAD follow as Brent hits $90 on a Strait of Hormuz standoff that is widening, not narrowing. Wednesday's CPI is the next test.
RBA held at 4.35% with Bullock keeping a hike on the table; Aussie whipsawed on the decision. Oil fell on Iran-Oman Hormuz progress. US CPI lands Wednesday.
NFIB small business optimism index rose to 99.8 in July, above the 52-year average of 98.0. Hiring plans and capex intentions drove the increase.
Brent rose for the fourth time in five sessions. The dollar recovered from last week's jobs-report slide. Wednesday's CPI will test the inflation outlook.
BoE hawkish dissent widens at three straight meetings. June GDP data will show whether the economy can handle another hike, setting EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF direction.
The ONS delays the labour survey transition to 2027, leaving the BOE without reliable jobs data for rate decisions. Sterling faces extended uncertainty.
Italy's trade surplus widened to €4.23 billion in June as exports rose 1.6% month on month, driven by a 6.7% jump in EU shipments. Import prices fell 1.3% m/m.