Natural Gas: Trendline Break Opens Path to $3.02 Support

Natural gas broke below its 20-day moving average and a short-term uptrend line on Thursday, a move that shifts the near-term bias lower. The session printed its full range below those indicators after an initial bounce from $3.15 failed to hold.

Support now sits at the interim swing low of $3.12. A break below that level would open a path toward the rising 50-day moving average near $3.02, a level that has acted as support since it was reclaimed in May. The 50-day MA is also converging with the June swing low at $3.02, making that zone a major test of the broader bullish trend structure.

The break below the 20-day MA and trendline is not yet a trend reversal. The 50-day MA is still rising, and the weekly structure shows higher lows. What would confirm the bearish case is a sustained move below $3.12, followed by a test of $3.02. A failure at $3.02 would put the June low in play and could trigger a more aggressive selloff.

A quick reclaim of the 20-day MA near $3.21 would negate the breakdown. An inside day formed on Wednesday, and a rally above Wednesday's high of $3.27 would signal a bullish reversal, targeting the recent highs around $3.38 to $3.44.

The 50-day MA at $3.02 is the next major support. A close below that level would mark the first lower low since the May rally began.