Sterling: Lower Mortgage Rates Could Support Growth – Pantheon

Sterling edged up on Friday, trading near $1.3366, after the Bank of England published credit data showing lending conditions are improving. The move left the pound 0.2% stronger against the dollar on the session.

Pantheon Macroeconomics said the figures reinforce a picture of a more resilient UK economy. Lower mortgage rates, the consultancy argued, should support household spending and growth over the coming quarters. That view matters for the currency because a stronger domestic outlook reduces the chance the Bank of England will cut rates aggressively in 2025, keeping UK gilt yields relatively elevated and attracting capital flows.

The data also feeds into the broader macro story that has buoyed GBP/USD for months: UK activity has steadily outperformed the eurozone, and the housing channel is a key transmission belt. Cheaper borrowing costs could lift home buying and renovation spending, reinforcing the consumer-driven recovery that has already surprised forecasters.

Pantheon's assessment points to a growth path that remains above trend even as other developed economies slow. That relative strength has been a steady underpinning for sterling, and the credit data adds another layer to the narrative. Traders will watch upcoming UK inflation and labor market prints to see if the improving lending conditions show up in real economic momentum.

Sterling held near $1.3366 on Friday, with the pair consolidating after a strong run. The next catalyst for direction is likely to be the Bank of England's own assessment of credit conditions and the broader economic outlook, which could either reinforce or challenge the Pantheon view.