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Pound slips below 1.33 as UK jobs and inflation data test BOE rate path. Dollar demand rises on Middle East tensions, narrowing sterling's yield advantage.
Brent hit a five-week high above $90 before reversing nearly $5 as Iran signaled willingness for negotiations. The retreat tested support at $87.37, with supply risks from the Hormuz closure.
Canada's June CPI slipped to 2.1%, the lowest since early 2021, as gasoline and food prices eased. Traders see a higher chance of a BoC rate cut on July 24.
The Conference Board's LEI fell 0.2% in June, missing the -0.1% estimate. Consumer expectations weakened, but AI investment supports the GDP outlook. The coincident index rose 0.2%.
Oil gapped above $90 then retreated after US-Iran strikes, signaling the escalation was priced in. Silver bounced from $55. New Zealand CPI due Tuesday.
Brent crude climbed more than $10 last week, driving the dollar higher and energy stocks lower. Orbex strategist David Kindley explains the impact on currencies and equities.
Canada's annual inflation slowed to 2.8% in June from 3.2%, the biggest monthly drop since December, as gasoline prices tumbled 10.2%. Core measures also eased.
Canada's June CPI came in at 2.8% versus 2.9% expected, with gasoline slowing sharply. The World Cup pushed hotel prices up 19.4% in Ontario, but underlying inflation held at 2.2%.
Futures see 81% chance of Fed hike in 2026; Brent above $90 keeps inflation sticky. Euro, pound, yen react to central bank signals. Traders eye data.
A senior Iranian source said mediators have proposed a 10-day halt to strikes. Risk assets rallied and oil extended losses as diplomatic channels remain open.
Rupee hit 83.52, its lowest since June, as oil importers bought dollars and the greenback firmed. RBI likely intervened. Traders watch 83.60-83.65 zone.
The pound is gaining against the yuan as the BoE holds rates and oil prices climb above $85. A falling wedge breakout targets 9.4702. UK CPI this week is the next catalyst.
Iran's foreign ministry says diplomacy 'active', received proposals from mediators. Analysts say comments fit a pattern of delay, unlikely to shift standoff.
Iran signaled diplomatic channels remain open with mediators active. It reiterated the Strait of Hormuz stance is non-negotiable. Oil eased on the remarks, though escalation risks keep prices supported.
Sterling holds near $1.2840. UK CPI Wednesday and retail sales Friday test the BOE rate path. Burnham's centrist reputation keeps the pound calm despite political turnover.
German producer prices fell 0.3% in June, more than the 0.2% drop expected, as energy costs plunged 1.8%. Excluding energy, prices rose 0.2%. Annual rate steady at 1.8%.
WTI crude opened the week at $83.55 a barrel. Almost no LNG tankers are crossing the Strait of Hormuz, ship tracking data showed. Equities bounced after Friday's selloff. The dollar was mixed.
Oil jumped 2% in Asia after Iran hit a tanker in Hormuz, widening the US-Iran war. Safe-haven dollar gained. South Korea targets won convertibility. Singapore MAS policy date July 27.
New Zealand's trade surplus narrowed to NZD 23M in June as exports rose 25% and imports 28%, with US shipments surging 43% and machinery imports leading, Statistics New Zealand data showed.
ING's FX team says EUR/USD's bounce from April lows runs into seller resistance near 1.15 on rising TTF gas costs and the ECB-Fed rate divergence.
WTI crude at $82 after a 20% rally. Natixis says supply fears haven't materialised, signalling a risk premium rather than a physical shortage. The premium could unwind if tensions ease.
France ordered ISPs to block Polymarket after a transaction ban failed to stop 578,751 monthly visits. The crackdown follows a hacked weather probe and a US soldier's alleged insider bets.
Apple raised iPhone prices in Japan by up to 11% as the yen's slide against the dollar pushes import costs higher. The iPhone 15 Pro Max jumped 28% to ¥204,600.
US two-year yield fell 8 bp after soft CPI, but Middle East escalation and tech sell-off revived safe-haven bids. ECB meeting, UK political transition, and US data in focus this week.
June CPI fell 0.4% mom but oil's rebound above $88 threatens to unwind the disinflation. Brent's technical setup points to a test of $90, which would strengthen the Dollar.
Natural gas consolidates for a fifth session between $2.82 support and $2.97 resistance. A break below support targets $2.68, while a rally above $2.96 could signal a reversal.
WTI crude tops $82, Brent above $88 after Iran strikes Kuwait water infrastructure. Natural gas tests $2.90 on high demand forecasts. Escalation in Middle East drives oil rally; traders eye weekend risks.
Baker Hughes oil rig count rose 7 to 452, a year-over-year gain of 30 rigs. Crude jumped $2.36 to $81.30, breaking above the week's high. Next resistance at $82.01.
BofA sees three dollar tailwinds for H2: hyperscaler capex demand, a hawkish Fed, and Hormuz risk. Sterling slipped to $1.3446, euro to $1.1442.
WTI crude holds near $78.50 as the 50-day EMA caps gains for a third session. Traders cite weekend Middle East risk premium. A break above $79.50 or below $77.50 sets the next leg.