Natural Gas Flat Before Juneteenth as Traders Weigh Supply, Exports

Natural gas is trading flat ahead of the Juneteenth holiday, with traders mostly sitting on the sidelines. The market faces competing forces: steady U.S. output and a recovery in Qatari exports on one side, and the risk of a summer heat wave on the other.

Thursday's price action stayed rangebound, with the front-month contract hovering near $3.20. The $3 level below remains support. A clean break under that would open a path to $2.75. Above $3.50, the picture turns bullish – but that probably requires a sustained heat wave, which is not on the near-term forecast. Signs of exhaustion near these levels have been sold into in recent sessions, which keeps the short-term bias cautious.

The latest storage injection came in higher than expected, adding to the supply cushion. Last week's number surprised to the upside, and the trend suggests inventories are building faster than average. That is weighing on the bullish case.

On the export side, Qatar LNG production is back to roughly 80% of capacity, according to industry reports. That matters for Europe, which had been relying on U.S. LNG cargoes. A recovery in Qatari flows reduces pressure on the U.S. export market, which in turn lowers the floor for domestic prices.

The June contract expiration and the holiday-shortened week are making positioning even more tentative. Friday's session will have limited hours, and the next meaningful catalyst is next week's storage report.

Natural gas at these levels is a market without a trigger. The heat wave risk is real but not imminent. Export demand is steady but not surging. Until one of those forces shifts, rangebound price action between $3 and $3.50 is the most likely path.