Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Dollar rose 0.3% as Ukraine ceasefire hopes faded. Sterling slid 0.4% to $1.2870 on UK political risk. Next test: NY Fed services survey Monday and CPI revision Wednesday.
Rabobank warns of a 'long, hot summer' for sterling, citing political risks and BoE rate cuts that could cap any GBP/USD bounce.
GBP/USD rose 0.25% to 1.3235 after the BoE held rates at 4.5%. Goldman expects no rate change through 2026, citing sticky services inflation. The next data point is February CPI on March 26.
USD/CHF surged 3.3% in May. The Fed holds while the SNB eases. The franc’s slide faces a test at the SNB’s June 20 meeting.
Natural gas closed the week near $3.25 with a doji pattern. A break above $3.32 opens a run at $3.42–$3.49 resistance. A drop below $3.06 tests the 20-week moving average and an uptrend line that together form a key pivot.
The yen trades near its weakest since 1986 as the dollar gains on Fed rate-hike bets and delayed US-Iran peace deal. Intervention risk keeps traders on edge.
Brent crude whipsaws on Iran headlines, but depleted inventories and a slow Hormuz reopening keep the physical market tight. Wall Street sees $90-100 oil this summer.
Iran delayed nuclear talks with the U.S. as the Lebanon ceasefire frayed. WTI tested $77, Brent hit $81.50. The Strait of Hormuz is open, but the risk premium is back.
July natural gas holds above the 50-day moving average as storage injections trail last year and LNG exports run at 19.2 Bcf/d. A record 34,000 short bet sets up an asymmetric squeeze risk if the heat catalyst arrives.
May CPI expected at 3% y/y, driven by energy and food. Core measures stay near the Bank of Canada's 2% target. CAD's path hinges on core print, not headline.
Crude oil fell $2 as Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire removed the Iran Strait of Hormuz threat. OPEC+ meets next week. AlphaScala analysis had flagged the potential for lower prices.
The US-Iran agreement opens the strait for 60 days. The Fed's dot plot shows nine officials see rate hikes. Dollar strengthens, EUR/USD slides. Next week's PMIs and PCE decide the path.
Crude touched $79.20 then reversed as the Iran-US ceasefire holds. Pre-war levels near $68 remain the target. A weekly close below $76 would confirm the move.
The RBI kept rates on hold at 6.5% in April, minutes show, citing food and oil inflation uncertainty. The rupee and bonds saw limited reaction as markets await April CPI data on May 13.
Gold holdings fell sharply while foreign currency assets rose, RBI data show. The drop is a valuation effect, not a sign of intervention. The next release on June 19 covers NDF expiry week.
UK retail sales beat expectations but sterling barely moved, while ECB's Lane and Wunsch defended the June rate hike. Canadian retail sales due later but unlikely to shift BoC.
Hungarian forint and Czech crown slip from recent highs as a stronger dollar and stalled U.S.-Iran talks push crude higher, testing the region's rate-cut narrative.
UK employment data beat forecasts but sterling fell 0.3% as the BoE signalled no urgency to tighten. Oil's drop on the US-Iran framework added pressure. The 200-day MA near 1.2650 is the next test.
Bond inflows and softer crude drove the rupee's best week in 11 sessions. The catalyst is structural: passive buying tied to the JP Morgan index inclusion runs through September.
Bandhan Bank lifted FCNR(B) rates to 7.1% for deposits above $1M, following RBI's USD-INR swap facility for 3-5 year FCNR deposits. The policy aims to boost forex inflows and ease rupee liquidity.
WTI crude bounced at $75.93 with a neutral-to-bullish bias; Brent holds $79.90; natural gas eyes $3.268. Supply recovery from the Iran deal shapes the outlook.
Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai sees two rate hikes by March. The yen's weakness and sticky services inflation are the catalysts. Next data: April CPI on May 24.
UK retail sales rose 1.2% in May, beating expectations and reducing the case for a BoE rate cut. Sterling held gains as traders reassess the policy path.
UK retail sales beat forecasts in May, boosting sterling and reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates higher for longer. The pound held gains.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slip as US VP delays Iran trip for nuclear talks. Dollar index breaks above 100.55 resistance, pushing EUR/USD and GBP/USD to 3-month lows.
UK May budget deficit hit £23.3bn, the largest for the month outside 2020. Extra gilt supply pushes yields higher, creating two-sided risk for sterling ahead of the autumn budget and BOE meeting.
ECB's Pierre Wunsch said a July rate hike remains possible if core inflation persists, even as the U.S.-Iran deal lowers oil prices and eases headline inflation.
UK retail sales rose 1.2% in May, nearly double the 0.5% consensus. The three-month trend is soft at 0.4%. The BoE rate-cut path remains on track for August. Sterling held near 1.3370. The next key data is June CPI on July 16.
US equity futures slipped after Vance delayed Iran talks. Oil holds at 200-day MA; dollar index clears 100.55 resistance. Gold nears June low.
Japan's core CPI remained at 1.4% in May as fuel subsidies capped energy costs. The soft print keeps pressure on the BoJ's normalization path ahead of the July 30-31 meeting.