WTI Bounces at $75.93, Brent at $79.90, NatGas at $3.204

The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this week that lifts the naval blockade, reopens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and starts a 60‑day negotiation to resolve wider geopolitical tensions. The closure had taken roughly 11 million barrels a day of regional crude off the market, turning OECD crude stocks into the tightest in two decades. Now supply is scheduled to come back online, and the market is pricing the early stages of that unwind.

The pace of supply recovery will depend on when cargoes actually move. Clearing mines, resolving logistics and restarting commercial shipping all take time. Outside the region, crude inventories are relatively high, so the speed of replenishment could lag the headline normalisation. On the demand side, resilient refining activity in major markets kept physical balances tight even during the disruption. A sustained reopening would ease that tightness, potentially weighing on spot prices over the next several weeks.

Arslan, a finance MBA and behavioral finance expert, outlined technical setups for the three key energy contracts.

WTI crude touched $75.93 on the 2‑hour chart and bounced. Green bullish candles held the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $77.69 after sliding below the red 50‑period moving average around $80.76. Higher lows from the $72.79 swing have formed, and the white volume pivot sits between $77 and $80. The RSI is neutral at 48. A white descending trendline caps the upside near $80.76. Arslan sees a neutral‑to‑bullish bias, with price stabilising above $77.69 after the correction to the 2‑hour channel floor. His trade idea: long at $75.93, target $77.72, risk $74.50.

Brent crude trades at $79.90 on the 2‑hour frame. Mixed candles tested $78.50 – the blue descending channel floor – after rejection at the red MA around $85.63. Buyer absorbance on dips is visible through bullish rejection wicks that limited downside follow‑through. RSI sits at 50 neutral. The white volume pivot is $80 to $82. Resistance clusters near $82.85 to $85.00. Arslan expects a neutral‑to‑bullish drift inside the $78.50–$82.85 zone, with higher lows keeping buyers engaged. His trade idea: long at $79.90, target $82.85, risk $78.50.

In the gas segment, market fundamentals have been more resilient. US dry gas production is growing, boosted by associated gas from the crude plays and strong LNG demand from export markets. Storage builds in the US show domestic comfort. LNG shipments to Europe and Asia are rising, pulling gas from surplus. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also eases LNG prices in both basins, which had been supported by the closure. Cheniere Energy, a major US LNG exporter, carries an Alpha Score of 66 (Moderate) on AlphaScala's sentiment model, reflecting its exposure to the recovery in global gas flows.

Natural gas futures trade at $3.204 on the 2‑hour NYMEX chart. Mixed candles hold the $3.19 area (red MA) while price remains inside a blue ascending channel. Bullish rejection wicks from the $3.099 swing low put the buyer in control. The RSI is 52 neutral. The white volume pivot at $3.10 is key support, with a confluence of Fibonacci levels pointing toward $3.203–$3.268 as the next target, Arslan said. The overall setup leans bullish – higher highs and higher lows keep the pattern intact. His trade idea: long at $3.204, target $3.268, risk $3.10.

Over the next few weeks, the speed of crude supply recovery versus the drawdown in global storage will set the tone. Demand could pick up across major economies if energy prices remain under control after the reopening. The technical levels outlined by Arslan offer concrete entry and exit points for traders watching this transition.