US equity futures slipped after Vance delayed Iran talks. Oil holds at 200-day MA; dollar index clears 100.55 resistance. Gold nears June low.
Alpha Score of 38 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, poor value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Asian equity futures opened lower Friday after US Vice President J.D. Vance delayed a trip for Iran nuclear talks. S&P 500 E-minis fell 0.5%; Nasdaq 100 E-minis dropped 0.7%. The 60-day countdown toward a nuclear agreement and a permanent peace deal is ticking, and the delay took the bid off the overnight tape.
The move reversed some of Thursday's US session gains. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.5%, the S&P 500 added 1.1%, and the Russell 2000 rose 2.1% ahead of the Juneteenth holiday. Mega-cap tech led, and small caps snapped a multi-session slide. The overnight futures action points to a reset: geopolitical uncertainty is back on the table.
The US Dollar Index broke above the 100.55 resistance that had capped it since May 2025. The Fed's upgraded economic projections and hawkish dot plot continued to support the greenback. The euro lost 0.4% to 1.1458, a three-month low. Sterling fell 0.7% to 1.3205, also a three-month low. Both currencies have fallen for two straight sessions.
Sovereign bonds stabilised. Long-term inflation risk premiums eased with the week's sharp drop in oil. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.45%, still above its 50-day moving average near 4.40%. Short-term yields hover near multi-decade highs. The result is a deeply inverted curve after the FOMC's hawkish shift.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $74 before closing near $75.50, holding at the 200-day moving average. The benchmark has lost 10% since Monday. Brent crude settled under $80 at $79.25.
The hourly RSI shows a bullish divergence in oversold territory, suggesting bearish momentum may be fading, according to the technical analysis from OANDA strategist Kelvin Wong. A key support zone sits at $75.25 to $73.40. A hold above that level opens a potential rebound toward $80.75 and the Monday gap-down area at $82.98 to $84.94. A break and hourly close below $73.40 would extend the bearish sequence toward $70.25 and $67.40 to $66.10.
Spot gold fell 1.4% to close at $4,209 Thursday and extended losses by another 1.4% in Friday's Asian session, hovering near the June 11 low of $4,024. The dollar's strength and shifting rate expectations continue to weigh on the metal.
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