S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slip as US VP delays Iran trip for nuclear talks. Dollar index breaks above 100.55 resistance, pushing EUR/USD and GBP/USD to 3-month lows.
Alpha Score of 30 reflects poor overall profile with weak momentum, poor value, moderate quality, poor sentiment.
E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5% and 0.7% in Monday's Asia session after US Vice President JD Vance delayed a trip for Iran talks. The 60-day countdown to reach a nuclear agreement and a permanent peace deal is underway. The move ended last week's risk-on rally that saw the Nasdaq 100 gain 2.5% and the Russell 2000 rally 2.1%.
Long-term yields eased. Lower oil prices reduced inflation risk premiums. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.45%, though it remains above its 50-day moving average near 4.40%. Short-term yields hovered near multi-decade highs, locking the curve in a deep inversion after the FOMC's hawkish dot plot shift.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 100.55 major range resistance that had been in place since May 2025. The Fed's upgraded economic projections continue to underpin the dollar. EUR/USD extended its losses 0.4% to trade at 1.1458, a 3-month low. GBP/USD fell 0.7% to 1.3205, also a 3-month low.
West Texas crude plummeted 10% on the week to test the 200-day moving average near $74. It settled around $75.50. Brent crude closed under $80 for the first time since early February. The drop in energy prices weighed on commodity-currency pairs. Spot gold slid 1.4% to $4,209 and extended losses to near $4,024, close to the June 11 low.
For the dollar, the implication is that the Fed's rate path is the dominant driver despite lower oil. Lower oil typically eases inflation expectations and pressures the dollar. In the current setup, the short-term yield advantage from the Fed's hawkish dot plot offsets that. The dollar is capturing the rate differential, not the inflation signal.
US markets are closed Monday for Juneteenth. The next major data is the May PCE inflation report due Friday. That print will test whether the dollar's breakout above 100.55 holds or fades.
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