Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
The US economy grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, missing forecasts, but consumer spending accelerated to 2.3% and underlying inflation cooled.
The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote. Governor Bailey said future policy depends on Middle East developments. Deputy Governor Ramsden flagged a possible return to cuts if risks fade.
WTI slips from $85 as Middle East headlines keep oil volatile; 50-day and 200-day EMA convergence offers technical support for traders, with Brent tracking similar levels.
The dollar slipped after the Fed held rates, disappointing traders who had priced a chance of a hike. USD/JPY bounced near 162, while USD/CAD stalled at the 50-day EMA.
June core PCE rose 0.1% MoM, below the 0.2% forecast, and the services ex-energy/housing gauge slowed to 0.1% from 0.5%. The dollar weakened on the dovish tilt.
Headline GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.5% in Q2, but consumer spending surged 3.2% and the core PCE deflator eased to 3.4%. The mixed data complicates the Fed's next move on rates.
The greenback gave up early gains after Chair Warsh's press conference. USD/JPY spiked then slid. European equities rose, led by Microsoft's pre-market surge. Euro data adds ECB pressure.
Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% with no guidance. DXY recovers to 101.04. EUR/USD bullish above 1.1418. GBP/USD neutral near 1.3300 ahead of BoE.
WTI tests $84.75 resistance after a rebound from $79.00. Brent recovery holds above $85.68 while natural gas bounces off support near $2.648.
Business confidence in New Zealand rose to its highest since the Iran conflict began in July. The survey's timing means the optimism may be fragile. Inflation expectations fell to 3.14%.
30-year yield hit 5.235% on Wednesday, the highest since 2007. The Fed held rates 9-3. September hike odds dropped to 65%. The divergence signals a term-premium repricing, traders said.
WTI crude held above $77.50 support after a sharp rebound from the rounding bottom pattern, while Brent rallied from $85 support. A close above $93 could push Brent toward $100, analyst said.
The Fed held rates 9-3 with Warsh joining the majority. AlphaScala sees the decision as a test of the chair's credibility on price stability. September odds fell to 65%.
The 10-year yield climbed 8.1bp to 4.685% after the Fed moved away from forward guidance. Stocks fell, oil surged $5.30. The 30-year hit 5.211%. Traders face more uncertainty.
Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% but three regional presidents dissented, wanting a hike. The 30-year yield hit 5.20%, a level not seen since 2007. The dollar fell 0.5% and gold rose 1%.
WTI jumped 7% after Iran struck U.S. forces in Jordan, raising supply disruption fears. EIA reported a 7.2M barrel crude draw; SPR hit multi-decade lows. Brent tests $90.50. Next resistance for oil: $85.50–86.00.
Kevin Warsh may sound like Volcker, but 120% debt-to-GDP and $1.2T annual interest costs prevent a repeat. The dollar's rally faces a ceiling as fiscal dominance caps rate expectations.
Crude oil prices jumped after Iran attacked a US base, reigniting supply fears. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Traders now watch the Fed decision for volatility.
Oil's rebound above $87, deepening tech-sector pressure, and a hawkish FOMC vote all converge on the same session. Brent crude, AI earnings, and the Fed's voting pattern each carry their own trigger.
The Fed's Wednesday decision is a binary event for FX markets. The euro stalled near 1.14, sterling near 1.33, and the dollar index formed a bullish flag. A 20-year trader says the session is 'entirely about the Fed outcome.'
Net mortgage approvals rose to 58,200 in June. Credit card borrowing accelerated to 12.5% annually. A BOE survey showed default rates at the highest since 2009.
A soft Australian CPI print reshapes RBA rate bets, a chip rout deepens in Asia, and US-Iran tensions keep oil prices capped ahead of the Fed decision.
Australia's trimmed mean inflation rose 3.6% annual, below the RBA's 3.8% forecast, reducing the case for an August rate hike.
BOJ Governor Ueda faces a critical test Friday as the yen flirts with 165 per dollar. OIS pricing shows a 29% chance of a September hike. Analysts warn a dovish hold could push dollar-yen beyond 165.
Tuesday's ADP miss and softer confidence data pushed Treasury yields lower. Oil dropped 4% on Middle East optimism. All eyes on the Fed decision Wednesday and Big Tech earnings.
WTI crude broke through $78 support as Trump said he wants to avoid Middle East escalation. Brent fell below $83. Traders see Strait of Hormuz reopening within weeks.
September natural gas fell 3.8% to $2.682 as Iran talks dragged European gas lower and cooler eastern U.S. forecasts broke a long-term support level.
The dollar climbed Tuesday as a global AI stock rout triggered risk aversion while September Fed hike odds held near 80% despite falling oil, keeping the greenback supported ahead of the FOMC decision.
Oil slides as Middle East ceasefire hopes build; China chip news hits Asian tech; Fed hike odds jump to 33% ahead of FOMC. Dollar firms, stocks mixed.
Macquarie sees the Middle East conflict ending within weeks, freeing a 2M bpd surplus by the fourth quarter. Bulls warn 4% of global supply is at risk. July rate hike odds stand at 38%.