
Rupee closes at 83.47, up from 83.52, as Brent crude drops 1.5% and foreign inflows hit $2.5 billion in June. RBI caps 83.50 with spot intervention.
The rupee closed slightly stronger on Monday, helped by a drop in crude oil prices and continued foreign portfolio inflows into local equities and debt, traders said.
The currency settled at 83.47 against the dollar, up from 83.52 in the previous session. It traded in a narrow 83.42-83.54 band through the day.
Brent crude fell about 1.5% on the session, extending last week's decline. Lower oil prices ease India's import bill and reduce pressure on the current account deficit, a key variable for rupee stability. India meets roughly 85% of its oil needs through imports.
Foreign investors have bought about $2.5 billion in Indian equities and bonds so far this month, provisional exchange data showed. The inflows have helped offset dollar demand from importers and state-run banks, which typically buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies.
The Reserve Bank of India was active in the spot market through the session, selling dollars to prevent the rupee from breaching the 83.50 level, two traders said. The central bank's intervention has kept the rupee in a tight range near 83.50 for most of the past two weeks.
State-run banks were spotted offering dollars in the afternoon session, likely on behalf of the RBI, one of the traders said. The RBI typically operates through multiple state-run lenders to avoid signalling its presence.
The rupee's move came despite a broadly stronger dollar in Asia. The dollar index held near a 13-month high, supported by hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer.
Most Asian currencies weakened against the greenback on Monday. The offshore Chinese yuan slipped past 7.25 per dollar, while the Indonesian rupiah and the South Korean won also declined.
The rupee's relative resilience reflects the combination of RBI intervention and steady foreign inflows, traders said. The central bank has built a sizeable foreign-exchange reserve buffer, which gives it room to manage volatility without depleting reserves.
India's foreign-exchange reserves stood at $648.6 billion as of June 7, the latest RBI data showed. That is down from a record $655.8 billion in late May but still among the highest globally.
Traders said the rupee is likely to stay range-bound near current levels through the week, with the RBI capping any sharp moves. The next trigger for a breakout would be a significant shift in oil prices or a change in the pace of foreign inflows, they said.
The market is watching for any comments from the RBI's monetary policy committee, which meets this week. No change in the repo rate is expected, the tone of the statement could influence rupee direction, traders said.
For traders tracking the rupee, the key level to watch is 83.50 on the upside. A sustained break above that, even with RBI intervention, would signal a shift in the central bank's tolerance level, they said.
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