Natural Gas Price Forecast: Compression Builds Toward Key Breakout Levels

Natural gas hit $3.35 on Thursday, a three-day high, before pulling back. The move tested a descending trendline that had been capping short-term upside. Price then settled back into the ascending broadening wedge that has defined the last several weeks.

The wedge itself is familiar: wider swings up, wider swings down. Inside it, a smaller symmetrical triangle has formed, compressing the range further. The upper boundary of that inner triangle sits near $3.38, Wednesday’s high. The lower boundary tracks recent daily lows.

A close above $3.38 breaks the inner triangle and the broader wedge’s near-term resistance. After that, the next targets line up at $3.42 and the early March swing high near $3.49. The 50-week moving average sits at $3.42, consolidating that resistance.

On the downside, a break below the inner triangle’s lower boundary opens a path to the wedge’s bottom trendline. That line is reinforced by the 50-day moving average near $3.09 and the most recent higher swing low at $3.06. The 50-day MA itself is about to cross above the wedge’s lower boundary, a technical signal that confirms improving momentum if it holds.