AlphaScala Daily: Gold tops $4,340, NKE insider cluster buys

Good morning.

Gold is doing the talking, up 0.77% to $4,342, and the model is leaning the same way: Kinross sits at 79, Hudbay at 80, both gold names near the top of the AlphaScala board. On the insider tape, four Nike insiders combined for a $2.17M net buy over the last 30 days, the loudest cluster of the morning. Across the Pacific, the RBA rate statement is the only high-importance print on the calendar. Congress was busy too, with John McGuire picking up META and Tim Moore buying AT&T. Here's what matters.

Markets

• XAU/USD 4,342.55 ▲ +0.77% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,809.57 ▲ +0.74% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 66,506.09 ▲ +0.35% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• Australia: RBA Rate Statement

Deal Flow

M&A

• PPHE Hotel Group Discloses Exempt Principal Trader Dealings (Manilatimes) A Form 8.5 filing shows an exempt principal trader dealing in PPHE Hotel Group shares under UK takeover rules, with no offeror named or indemnity arrangements disclosed.

IPOs / Listings

• Rasan Shares Hit Record High Since Listing on Saudi Exchange (Argaam) Rasan shares hit 68.90 riyals, their highest since the December IPO, after Q1 earnings beat estimates. The insurtech firm has gained 53% from the offer price.
• SpaceX IPO Tests Crypto: Perpetuals Win, Tokenized Shares Fail (Benzinga) Hyperliquid's SPCX perps hit $1.4B on listing day while tokenized share programs failed due to stock shortages. The episode sets the template for Anthropic and OpenAI listings.
• SpaceX buys AI coding startup Cursor for $60B (BI) SpaceX acquires AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion, its first major deal since the record-breaking IPO. The purchase brings code-generation tools in-house for Starlink and…

Funding Rounds

• Picketa Raises $2.1M to Put Plant Tissue Analysis in Farmers' Hands (Betakit) Picketa's LENS device cuts fertilizer waste by up to 20% with on-the-spot tissue analysis. The $2.1M seed round funds scaling production and crop support.

Debt

• InCommodities Plans Debt Raise After 96% Profit Collapse (Financialpost) Danish energy trader InCommodities plans to borrow more after profits fell to €2.9M from €72.5M. Goldman-backed firm eyes North America gas expansion.
• Nvidia's $20B Bond Sale Signals AI Buildout, Miners Chase the Shift (Blockonomi) Nvidia's $20B bond sale funds AI infrastructure. Bitcoin miners pivot to data centers, securing $70B in AI commitments. Bernstein sees IREN leading the shift.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Designer Brands Q4: Sales Stabilize, Margins Up 280 bps (SA) Designer Brands reported Q4 sales roughly flat year-over-year, with gross margin expanding 280 basis points. The company did not provide formal guidance for fiscal 2026.
• Designer Brands Q1: Sales Stabilize, Margins Up 280 bps (SA) Designer Brands Q1 revenue fell just 0.3% to $770.3M, the smallest drop in quarters. Gross margin expanded 280 bps to 35.9%. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 beat estimates. Full-year…
• FedEx Q4 Earnings: Tariffs and Amazon Cloud the Outlook (SA) FedEx's June quarter report brings tariff and Amazon risks into focus. The analyst covering the stock sees three variables that will shape the market's reaction.
• Jamjoom Pharma shifts SAR 67M statutory reserve to retained earnings (Argaam) Jamjoom Pharma shareholders approved transferring SAR 67.13 million from the statutory reserve to retained earnings, freeing up capital for dividends or corporate actions.

Macro

• Staircase Maker Spiral UK Stars in Enginuity Manufacturing Film (Businesscornwall) Helston-based staircase manufacturer Spiral UK appears in a new Enginuity film highlighting skills in UK manufacturing. The video showcases precision work and the sector's talent…
• Rupee Hits 94.56 as Oil Drop and Inflows Shift the Bias (BL) The rupee rose for a third day to 94.56, supported by softer oil prices after the U.S.-Iran deal and foreign inflows. The Fed decision and deal details are next.
• Mental Health Conditions Now Top EEOC Disability Claims (Hrdailyadvisor) Disability claims at the EEOC surged 34% in three years. Mental health conditions now account for 21% of those filings, creating new accommodation challenges for employers.

Stocks

• Why Adobe's 35% Drop May Be Priced For A Break, Not A Breakdown (SA) Adobe's stock has dropped 35% despite double-digit revenue growth. The September earnings report will decide whether the cheap valuation is an opportunity or a trap.
• ONLYOFFICE DocSpace 3.7 Adds AI File Generation and Smarter Forms (Manilatimes) ONLYOFFICE DocSpace 3.7 adds AI file generation for DOCX, PDF, and PPTX, redesigned form-filling rooms, updated editors, and stronger security controls including link expiration…
• KBLB CEO: Existing Silk Infrastructure Gives Spider Silk Edge at Scale (Manilatimes) CEO Kim Thompson says recombinant spider silk can scale by using existing textile supply chains. Company targets monthly metric-ton production as National Geographic cover…
• Qualcomm Analyst Sees 42% Upside on AI Offset to Handset Weakness (SA) Analyst sees 42% upside on Qualcomm as AI edge computing and automotive growth offset headwinds from sluggish handset demand and Apple's in-house modem push.
• Why Modi's 'Nothing' Chat With a Tech Founder Matters for Infosys (Mint) Modi's chat with Nothing's co-founder in France came alongside a $16B trade target and an AI pact. For Infosys, the policy signal is clearer than the philosophy.
• Handel's, Konala to New States: Restaurant Franchise Expansions (Restaurantnews) Handel's Homemade Ice Cream signs first multi-unit deal in Chicago. Konala opens first Utah location. Pepper Lunch secures four Texas sites. Rock N' Roll Sushi debuts in Michigan.
• Why 60% of UK consumers are choosing quality over price (Retailtimes) Tink survey finds 60% of UK buyers prioritize quality over price, a shift that could benefit premium retailers while pressuring discounters. The gap between stated preference and…
• Non-institutional foreign ownership ex-Aramco rises to 11.25% (Argaam) Non-institutional foreign ownership in Tadawul ex-Aramco rose to 11.25% last week, a sign of steady foreign appetite beyond the energy giant. Holdings hit SAR 358B.

Crypto

• Hong Kong SFC Chief: Digital Asset Rules, AI Finance on Agenda (CrowdFundInsider) SFC Chairman Tim Lui said Hong Kong will write rules for digital asset trading, custody, and advisory services while expanding sandbox tests for generative AI in finance.
• EU Crypto Exchanges Face July 1 MiCA Deadline With 80% Unlicensed (TheNewsCrypto) Most EU crypto firms still lack MiCA authorization with weeks to go. ESMA warns unlicensed exchanges must stop EU services after July 1, triggering account freezes and customer…
• New Zealand's Crypto Tax Rules Show the State-Integration Playbook (Blockonomi) New Zealand activated the OECD's CARF on April 1, 2026. The compliance move signals how states absorb blockchain infrastructure rather than fight it. Traders should watch the…
• DTCC Picks Stellar for Tokenized Securities. What the Deal Actually Covers (Crypto news) DTCC, the clearinghouse behind nearly every US stock trade, will issue tokenized Russell 1000 stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries on Stellar. XLM jumped 30%. The $114 trillion figure is…
• Crypto Padel League Season 1 Underway in London (Crypto Daily) The Crypto Padel League's first season brings 24 teams from firms like Coinbase, Solana, and Fireblocks to London courts. Season 2 waitlist is open for founders and investors.
• ECB Chief: Tokenized Markets Must Settle in Central Bank Money (Crypto Briefing) Lagarde says tokenized markets need central bank settlement, not private stablecoins. She cited 98% USD dominance and projects Pontes (Sept 2026) and Appia (2028) as Europe's…
• ECB's Lagarde Rejects Euro Stablecoins, Backs Digital Euro (Cryptopolitan) ECB President Lagarde says euro stablecoins are structurally fragile and pushes digital euro as the only credible path, with pilot not expected until 2027.
• Central Bank Divergence Hits Crypto as 146 Countries Explore CBDCs (Crypto Briefing) Five central banks meet March-June 2026, with 146 countries exploring CBDCs. Stablecoin issuers face direct sovereign competition as ECB and BoE push digital currencies.

Forex / Commodities

• First Atlantic Drills 414m of Visible Awaruite at New Zone (Financialpost) The 414-metre intercept strengthens the case for a second large-scale awaruite zone at Pipestone XL. Assays will confirm grade viability.
• Four Commodities Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs as Sensex Rallies (Economictimes) Pidilite Industries led with a 64% monthly gain to Rs 205. Gujarat Ambuja Exports, Deepak Nitrite, and Navin Fluorine also hit new highs as the BSE commodities index outperformed…
• Energy Transfer LP: When Build-Out Meets Execution Risk (SA) ET's AlphaScore 62 and multibillion-dollar project pipeline put it on a risk event watch. Upside from cash flow growth meets execution and regulatory overhang.
• Indian Stocks Rally Third Day; US-Iran Deal Softens Crude (BL) Indian equities extended gains for a third session after a US-Iran peace deal lowered oil prices. The Nifty touched 24,002 intraday. Metal stocks fell. FII turned net buyers.…
• Dollar Holds above JPY 160 after BOJ Hike; Aussie Firms on RBA Hold (MarcToMarket) The dollar held above JPY 160 after the BOJ hiked to 1%. The Aussie firmed after the RBA stood pat at 4.35%. Gold consolidated after a 6.5% three-day rally. The FOMC decision is…
• Strait of Hormuz Reopens: Iranian Tankers Transit After US Lifts Blockade (Forex Live) Iranian tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifts its naval blockade, clearing the way for Friday's MoU signing and removing a key risk premium from crude.
• Equinor Doubles 2026 Buyback to $3B, Sets $2-4B Range from 2027 (Manilatimes) Equinor doubled its 2026 buyback to $3B and introduced a $2-4B annual range tied to oil at $60-80 and gas at $7-11/mmBtu. Production outlook lifted for 2030. Conditions matter.
• Iran Deal Finalized: Strait of Hormuz Reopening to Weigh on Oil, CAD (Forex Live) The US-Iran nuclear deal enters a 60-day implementation phase with Hormuz reopening in focus. Oil-linked currencies face headwinds as crude supply risk fades. Here is the setup to…

Smart Money

• Robert E. Latta (R-OH): PURCHASE FMAO
• Tim Moore (R-NC): PURCHASE T
• John McGuire (R-VA): PURCHASE META
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE SFTBF
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 82/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 82 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 36,665 contracts, 31.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 119,999 contracts, 31.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 63,801 contracts, 29.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Bitcoin: BTC gains 0.8% on Iran ceasefire squeeze; shorts lose $246M
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq grinds higher as gold slides 2.7%; MSFT's Nadella warns on AI hollowing risk
• Sp500: SPX treads water at 741.66 as gold sinks 2.65% and QQQ leads with 0.73%
• Crypto: BTC slides 14% as $700M liquidations meet Iran strikes; ETH drops 19.9%
• Gold: Gold holds near $4,300 as equities slide 2.8%; Emkay targets $5,200 on central bank bid

See you tomorrow before the bell.