AlphaScala Daily: Gold pops 2.8%, PPI on deck, NKE cluster buy

Good morning.

Gold ripped 2.8% overnight to $4,334, with ether up 2.3% and bitcoin holding above $66K. US Core PPI and PPI hit before the open, and UK CPI plus Canadian inflation round out a heavy print day. On the tape, four Nike insiders bought $2.17M over the past month, and KGC sits near the top of the model with a 79 Alpha Score, fitting on a day gold is doing the talking. Congress was busy too: John McGuire bought META, Tim Moore picked up T. Here's what matters.

Markets

• EUR/USD 1.16 ▲ +0.43% (EUR)
• XAU/USD 4,334.18 ▲ +2.82% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,764.93 ▲ +2.26% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 66,245.98 ▲ +0.82% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• Canada: CPI m/m
• United States: Core PPI m/m
• United States: PPI m/m
• United Kingdom: CPI y/y

Deal Flow

M&A

• PPHE Hotel Group Discloses Exempt Principal Trader Dealings (Manilatimes) A Form 8.5 filing shows an exempt principal trader dealing in PPHE Hotel Group shares under UK takeover rules, with no offeror named or indemnity arrangements disclosed.
• Fox to Acquire Roku for $22 Billion, Combining Streamers (CNBC) Fox's $22B Roku buy merges Tubi and The Roku Channel, creating a TV powerhouse. Fox shares fell 13% on the price; Roku rose 2%. Regulators will weigh antitrust concerns.
• eToro Eyes Wealth-Tech Deals and a Banking License After Nasdaq Listing (The Currency Analytics) eToro is in talks to buy two wealth-tech firms and is exploring a banking license. Q1 net income hit $82 million on $258 million revenue, with commodities leading.
• Treatt Plc EPT Disclosure Signals Institutional Trading Shifts (Manilatimes) An exempt principal trader added 12,500 Treatt Plc shares at 470p, signalling institutional demand near 52-week lows. The filing under Rule 8.5 of the Takeover Code offers a rare…

IPOs / Listings

• SpaceX Raises Record $75B in World's Biggest IPO (RTE) SpaceX raised $75B in the world‘s largest IPO, opening 30% above the offer price. OpenAI and Anthropic filed confidentially. Tax advice for Irish investors buying US shares.
• Forbright Stock Flat After Discounted IPO: What Changes (SA) Forbright (FRBT) started trading at the low end of its IPO range and has stayed flat. Thin float and light volume create liquidity risk. First earnings will be the catalyst.
• Rasan Shares Hit Record High Since Listing on Saudi Exchange (Argaam) Rasan shares hit 68.90 riyals, their highest since the December IPO, after Q1 earnings beat estimates. The insurtech firm has gained 53% from the offer price.
• Why Crypto Sat Out the U.S.-Iran Deal Rally (CoinDesk) Crypto sat out the U.S.-Iran deal rally as traders distrust a pattern of collapsed ceasefires. SpaceX's IPO and Binance's bStocks pull risk capital from tokens.
• SpaceX $75B IPO: Float Squeeze, Bitcoin Treasury, and Crypto Rotation (Crypto Briefing) SpaceX's $75B IPO with a 3-4% float triggered a buying frenzy and index fund demand. Capital rotated out of crypto. Kraken launched a tokenized version.
• SpaceX alum says wealth managers chased him with swag (BI) A former SpaceX engineer says wealth managers sent gifts and handwritten letters before the IPO lockup expired. He hired the one firm that didn't.
• SpaceX shares up 6% premarket after historic Nasdaq IPO (CNBC) SpaceX shares jumped 6% in premarket after its record Nasdaq debut. CFRA rated the stock sell with a $115 target; New Street Research initiated coverage at $165.

Funding Rounds

• Picketa Raises $2.1M to Put Plant Tissue Analysis in Farmers' Hands (Betakit) Picketa's LENS device cuts fertilizer waste by up to 20% with on-the-spot tissue analysis. The $2.1M seed round funds scaling production and crop support.

Debt

• InCommodities Plans Debt Raise After 96% Profit Collapse (Financialpost) Danish energy trader InCommodities plans to borrow more after profits fell to €2.9M from €72.5M. Goldman-backed firm eyes North America gas expansion.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Designer Brands Q4: Sales Stabilize, Margins Up 280 bps (SA) Designer Brands reported Q4 sales roughly flat year-over-year, with gross margin expanding 280 basis points. The company did not provide formal guidance for fiscal 2026.
• Designer Brands Q1: Sales Stabilize, Margins Up 280 bps (SA) Designer Brands Q1 revenue fell just 0.3% to $770.3M, the smallest drop in quarters. Gross margin expanded 280 bps to 35.9%. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 beat estimates. Full-year…

Macro

• Staircase Maker Spiral UK Stars in Enginuity Manufacturing Film (Businesscornwall) Helston-based staircase manufacturer Spiral UK appears in a new Enginuity film highlighting skills in UK manufacturing. The video showcases precision work and the sector's talent…

Stocks

• Why Adobe's 35% Drop May Be Priced For A Break, Not A Breakdown (SA) Adobe's stock has dropped 35% despite double-digit revenue growth. The September earnings report will decide whether the cheap valuation is an opportunity or a trap.
• US Orders Anthropic to Block Foreign Access to Fable 5 (Insurancejournal) US orders Anthropic to disable Fable 5 for foreign users after jailbreak discovery. The move threatens precedent for AI model releases by Google and Meta.
• ONLYOFFICE DocSpace 3.7 Adds AI File Generation and Smarter Forms (Manilatimes) ONLYOFFICE DocSpace 3.7 adds AI file generation for DOCX, PDF, and PPTX, redesigned form-filling rooms, updated editors, and stronger security controls including link expiration…
• FRC Opens Applications for UK GAAP Advisory Group (Yahoo) The FRC seeks up to 15 new members for its UK GAAP advisory group, with applications open through Oct. 4. The TAG influences future accounting standards.
• KBLB CEO: Existing Silk Infrastructure Gives Spider Silk Edge at Scale (Manilatimes) CEO Kim Thompson says recombinant spider silk can scale by using existing textile supply chains. Company targets monthly metric-ton production as National Geographic cover…
• Qualcomm Analyst Sees 42% Upside on AI Offset to Handset Weakness (SA) Analyst sees 42% upside on Qualcomm as AI edge computing and automotive growth offset headwinds from sluggish handset demand and Apple's in-house modem push.
• Why October Is the Best Month for Mean Reversion Trades (Quantifiedstrategies) A seasonal filter can separate mean reversion trades that work from those that get caught in trend days. October and January offer the best odds for snapback trades.
• Why Modi's 'Nothing' Chat With a Tech Founder Matters for Infosys (Mint) Modi's chat with Nothing's co-founder in France came alongside a $16B trade target and an AI pact. For Infosys, the policy signal is clearer than the philosophy.

Crypto

• India Tax Authorities Hit $104M Unreported Crypto Income (Coingape) India issued 44,000+ crypto tax notices and flagged Rs 888 crore unreported VDA income. New 2025 act requires transaction-level reports from exchanges and DeFi.
• Hong Kong SFC Chief: Digital Asset Rules, AI Finance on Agenda (CrowdFundInsider) SFC Chairman Tim Lui said Hong Kong will write rules for digital asset trading, custody, and advisory services while expanding sandbox tests for generative AI in finance.
• EU Crypto Exchanges Face July 1 MiCA Deadline With 80% Unlicensed (TheNewsCrypto) Most EU crypto firms still lack MiCA authorization with weeks to go. ESMA warns unlicensed exchanges must stop EU services after July 1, triggering account freezes and customer…
• Binance bStocks $143M Daily Volume Pressures Tokenized Stock Issuers (Crypto news) Binance's equities product averaged $143M daily volume in its first nine days, more than tripling the tokenized stock market's peak. The shift pressures issuers like Ondo and…
• Binance Equities Product Hits $143M Daily Volume, Overshadows Tokenized Market (Crypto Briefing) Binance's US equities product averaged $143M daily volume in nine days, crossing $1B total turnover. The launch dwarfs tokenized rivals Backed and Ondo, and adds bStocks for 24/7…
• a16z Opens Seoul Office as Crypto VCs Rush South Korea (Cryptopolitan) Andreessen Horowitz opens its first Asian office in Seoul as South Korea prepares a Digital Asset Basic Act requiring foreign stablecoin issuers to maintain local branches.
• Bitget's Nvidia Perp Hits 75% of BTC Spot Liquidity Depth (Crypto news) Bitget's Nvidia perpetual contract reached $4.1M in resting liquidity, about 75% of the exchange's BTC spot depth. The report also tracked how tokenized markets held up during the…
• Ceasefire and Fed Decision Set Up a Pivotal Week for Crypto (CoinDesk) Bitcoin jumped to $66K after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but past truces have failed. Wednesday's Fed dot plot and thinning liquidity will test whether the rally holds.

Forex / Commodities

• First Atlantic Drills 414m of Visible Awaruite at New Zone (Financialpost) The 414-metre intercept strengthens the case for a second large-scale awaruite zone at Pipestone XL. Assays will confirm grade viability.
• Oil Drops Below $80 After US-Iran MoU; Equities Rally, Dollar Falls (Forex Live) WTI crude touched $80 after US-Iran MoU. European stocks and gold rallied; dollar fell. Next catalysts: BOJ decision and Iran's Hormuz update.
• Riksbank Sees Rising Chance of 2025 Hike, Reuters Poll Shows (Reuters) 12 of 18 economists in a Reuters poll now expect a Riksbank rate hike before year-end, up from 8 in March. The Iran war and krona weakness drive the shift in policy outlook.
• Gold Flinches as Iran Deal Cap Keeps Supply Shock Small (Rttnews) Gold holds $2,650 as Iran deal details confirm a cap far below pre-sanctions levels, leaving the Fed's CPI print as the next catalyst for a break above $2,700.
• NGS Buys Flatrock at 6.2x EBITDA, Adds 86,000 HP Fleet (Manilatimes) Natural Gas Services Group expands credit line to $500M to fund Flatrock acquisition. The 6.2x multiple is below recent service-sector deals, integration risk and higher leverage…
• USA Rare Earth Starts Hydromet Facility, Targets Heavy Rare Earth Oxides by Q3 2026 (Manilatimes) USA Rare Earth starts commissioning its hydrometallurgical demo facility in Colorado, targeting first separated heavy rare earth oxide production by Q3 2026.
• Nobel Drops Two Chile Copper Projects After Drilling Misses (Manilatimes) Nobel Resources drops Anais and Pampa Austral after drilling fails to repeat historical copper grades. CEO says Cuprita remains the focus with active drilling underway.
• Surge Copper Berg Study Shows C$4.6B NPV, 24% IRR on 28-Year Mine Life (Manilatimes) Surge Copper's Berg PFS shows C$4.6B after-tax NPV at 8% discount and 24% IRR on a 28-year open-pit mine producing copper, molybdenum and silver in central B.C.

Smart Money

• Robert E. Latta (R-OH): PURCHASE FMAO
• Tim Moore (R-NC): PURCHASE T
• John McGuire (R-VA): PURCHASE META
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE SFTBF
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 82/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 82 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: MU (Micron Technology Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 36,665 contracts, 31.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 119,999 contracts, 31.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 63,801 contracts, 29.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Bitcoin: BTC gains 0.8% on Iran ceasefire squeeze; shorts lose $246M
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq grinds higher as gold slides 2.7%; MSFT's Nadella warns on AI hollowing risk
• Sp500: SPX treads water at 741.66 as gold sinks 2.65% and QQQ leads with 0.73%
• Crypto: BTC slides 14% as $700M liquidations meet Iran strikes; ETH drops 19.9%
• Gold: Gold holds near $4,300 as equities slide 2.8%; Emkay targets $5,200 on central bank bid

See you tomorrow before the bell.