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Eurozone CPI slowed to 2.8% in June, below the 3.0% consensus, with core inflation also missing forecasts. The data strengthens the case for an ECB hold at the July 27 meeting.
Eurozone headline inflation eased to 2.8% in June, below forecasts, as energy and services prices cooled. Monthly core crept up 0.2%, delaying ECB's next move.
The dollar’s rally from hawkish Fed signals has Brent sliding as a 2M BPD surplus looms by 2027, while USDJPY above 162 risks Japanese intervention if Warsh fails to halt the greenback.
Indirect US-Iran technical talks in Doha via Qatar and Pakistan add Strait of Hormuz toll uncertainty. Oil hedge, FX risk premia stay unresolved.
UK June manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5 from 53.9, below flash estimate. Stockpiling-driven demand is fading, S&P Global said, and output growth remained solid.
Germany's final June factory PMI was revised to 50.3, topping the 50.0 flash estimate. The sector eked out modest growth while input cost inflation retreated. The data leaves the ECB's rate path uncertain.
Italy's factory PMI slipped to 52.2 as stockpiling boost fades. Purchasing activity fell, cost pressures eased. Final composite PMIs and ECB July meeting are next.
Swiss June manufacturing PMI came in at 54.3, missing the 56.5 consensus. New orders fell to 53.5 from 59.4. The next SNB meeting is in September.
Natixis warns the UK's new reform agenda carries risks for the pound: higher gilt yields, a weaker currency, and a complication for BoE rate cuts. The Bank of England meets May 8.
GBP/EUR edged up 0.2% to €1.1612 after UK GDP revision confirmed momentum in Q1 2026. The Bank of England's rate decision next is the key event for sterling.
Japan's top currency diplomat said April intervention slowed the yen's slide. USD/JPY is back at 40-year highs, testing Tokyo's resolve near 160.
Japan's yen slid above 162.75 per dollar, a 40-year low, even as the Tankan survey hit its strongest since 1991. The BoJ data supports a rate hike case, but the market is focused on US yields. Iran tensions and a light China PMI add background noise.
The US is set to decline extending USMCA on Wednesday, triggering a six-year review. The 82% auto content demand could reshape supply chains. Watch for Canadian dollar and auto stock headline risk as Canada sits out formal talks.
Japan's Tankan large manufacturers index rose to 22, the highest since 2018, but the forward outlook eased. The July 31 BOJ meeting will test whether the central bank prioritizes current strength or cautious guidance.
Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 54.8 in June, capping the strongest quarter since 2014. New orders surged at the fastest pace in 4.5 years, driven by AI and semiconductor demand.
Australia's factory PMI rose to 51.5 in June, the highest since January, as supply-chain stress persists. Selling price inflation slowed, a data point the RBA will weigh ahead of the July employment report.
The RBI's $67.4B forward dollar short position at end-March is a record, signalling its commitment to managing the rupee's slide through swaps despite rising costs.
Australia's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in June, a five-month high, even as output fell for a fifth straight month and price pressures eased sharply.
WTI crude tests $70.50 support after U.S. envoys land in Doha for Iran talks. Brent holds $72.50. Natural gas rebounds on steady demand. Key issues remain unresolved.
WTI crude holds near the $70 war gap level as the analyst calls the market oversold. A summer range is forming with an upside bias toward $80, barring a geopolitical surprise.
US consumer confidence slipped to 91.2 in June, missing expectations. Rising job market concerns strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts. The dollar remains under pressure ahead of payrolls.
May job openings beat estimates at 7.594 million. The quits rate continued its gradual decline, signaling worker caution. The Fed stays on hold. Payrolls and CPI are next.
Canada GDP jumped 0.5% in April, beating estimates. Q2 tracking above 2% annualized. BoC sees patience. May GDP +0.1% in guidance. Recession narrative fades.
USD/JPY hits a fresh 40-year high as traders test Tokyo's resolve before Thursday's payrolls. The Yen is the week's weakest major currency so far.
Canada GDP rose 0.5% mom in April, beating the 0.4% consensus, after March's 0.1% contraction. May advance estimate shows 0.1% growth. The data gives the Bank of Canada room to hold rates steady at the July 24 meeting.
Inflation eased in France and Germany in June, pushing the ECB toward a July pause. Eurozone CPI due Wednesday, US JOLTS and consumer confidence follow.
The rupee posted its first quarterly advance in five, lifted by an 8% oil slide and RBI swaps that absorb rupee liquidity, traders said. US payrolls and India trade data are the next catalysts.
The yen touched a four-decade low Wednesday as a wide rate gap, heavy short positioning, and no credible backstop fuel the slide. What confirms the trend and what would break it.
The KOF Economic Barometer rose to 101.2 in June, beating forecasts and returning above its long-term average. Manufacturing drove the gain, reducing pressure on the SNB to cut rates further.
German jobless figure dropped 1,000 in June, defying consensus for a 7,000 rise, as the unemployment rate held at 6.3%. The data keeps the ECB in a grey zone ahead of US CPI.