Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Employment surged five times expectations, with full-time jobs up 38.6K and part-time up 36.6K. Wage growth slowed to 3.0% y/y, easing pressure on the Bank of Canada.
The dollar posted its best day in two weeks. Brent crude topped $80. USD/JPY neared 160. The US jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show 80,000 new jobs.
July non-farm payrolls estimated at +80k after a soft June print. The data tests Fed chair Warsh's view of a "solid" labour market and 63% odds of a September hike.
Brent crude jumped 4.6% on the Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz reopening deal. Friday's US jobs report is the next catalyst, with economists expecting 80,000 jobs.
USD/JPY three-day rebound stalls at 158.55 confluence ahead of July NFP. A break below 157.95 could trigger a resumption of the yen's intervention-driven gains.
Payrolls due at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The DXY has held a 99.60–100.80 range since June, with traders betting on a breakout — either way.
NFP forecast at +70k lands as Warsh signals a September hike if inflation stays hot. Brent tops USD83 on Iran strait risk. Sweden core CPI surprises to 0.6% y/y.
Shipping disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz anchor crude oil despite rising U.S. inventories. WTI bounces off $74.20, Brent tests the 100-period EMA, and natural gas stays weak near $2.64.
Oil ticks higher as Saudi official warns of imminent coordinated attack from Houthis, Iran. Musalem hawkish, RBI supports rupee, China trade beats.
Exports grew 23% in July, topping forecasts, as global AI demand absorbed Chinese goods even after Washington's 12.5% levy and fresh drone export curbs.
Musalem pushed for a 25bps hike at last week's FOMC, saying gradual tightening now is less disruptive than abrupt moves later. He said it's okay to surprise markets. The next meeting is Sept. 16-17.
Japanese household spending fell for a seventh straight month in June, missing forecasts by a wide margin and complicating the Bank of Japan's case for a September rate hike.
WTI crude oil's one-day reversal and the 200-day moving average now define the short-term outlook, with a reclaim targeting $82.76 and failure exposing $71.38.
Treasury yields surged on strong jobless claims and productivity data. The dollar rose broadly. Friday's jobs report will test whether the move holds.
Dollar loses ground while Fed hike bets cool. July NFP due 7 August sets the next test; EUR/USD faces resistance near $1.157, USD/JPY holds ¥157.50.
Bessent's Hormuz deal deadline passed without a breakthrough. Markets stalled across equities, yields, gold, and crude as investors wait for proof before extending positions.
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.3% in June, well below the 0.1% gain forecast, reversing May's revised increase and raising questions about the ECB's rate path into September.
Bank of America sees USD/JPY at 149 by year-end; CBA forecasts 165 by mid-2027. Carry trades return as BOJ normalization lags. U.S. July jobs data next.
ADP payrolls missed forecasts by a wide margin, reinforcing labor market concerns. EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidate near resistance as markets await Friday's NFP report.
Swedish July CPI lands today with core seen at 0.4% y/y, a week before the Riksbank rate decision. The krona hit 10.95 against the euro, its strongest since mid-June.
The 30-year yield hit 5.24%, highest since 2007, as quarterly inflation data offset a benign monthly PCE; GDP slowed, and the dollar fell 1.6% to below 100.
Iran-Oman talks raised hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, knocking the risk premium out of crude. WTI tests $74-$75 support; Brent faces $80-$81.
Exports surged 9.6% month-on-month while imports fell, swinging the trade balance from a AU$2.37bn deficit to a AU$1.93bn surplus.
Natural gas extends losses after bearish flag breakdown, targeting $2.54. Resistance at the 10-day moving average confirmed before the pattern triggered, with the April low at $2.50 at risk.
Garmin stock surged 21% after a strong earnings beat. Alpha Score 61 suggests moderate upside, but higher rates and a strong dollar could cap gains. Watch the $190 support level.
ADP's 44k private hiring miss reinforced Fed patience bets, keeping Treasury yields soft and the dollar on the back foot ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls.
Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran was imminent. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to 9 vessels, threatening supply.
The Eurozone's services sector returned to growth in July, Germany led the recovery, and inflation pressures eased to a five-month low. Renewed Middle East conflict threatens the outlook, keeping ECB policy uncertain.
Final July services PMI rose to 51.7, an eight-month high for the composite index. Output and new orders strengthened while price pressures eased. The ECB faces renewed risks from the Middle East conflict, de la Rubia said.
Spain July services PMI hit 58.3, the highest since March 2023, beating 54.9 consensus. New orders drove the lift. Price pressures eased. The euro held near $1.0920.