Yen hits 40-year low despite best Tankan since 1991

The geopolitical picture added another layer. Vice President Vance was quoted on social media, citing Al Jazeera, saying the US is ready to resume strikes on Iran if talks fail. The Wall Street Journal later reported that Trump has been briefed on a full return to war but has chosen to stick with negotiations for now, and is comfortable letting talks run past the August 18 deadline for a nuclear deal. Oil stayed rangebound near $75 a barrel. Gold slipped back under $4,000.

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI eased to 51.7 in June. That still capped the sector's strongest quarter since 2020, with input cost inflation cooling and hiring picking up. The softer print did not shift the narrative of a gradual recovery.

Elsewhere, Nike beat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings estimates but issued cautious guidance, pointing to a deceleration in North American retail sales from mid-April. Trump's personal financial disclosure showed over $1 billion in combined crypto income, most of it from the $TRUMP meme coin. The Commerce Department lifted export controls on two Anthropic AI models, reversing a three-week suspension ordered over national security concerns.

The yen closed at 162.75 against the dollar, a level not seen in 40 years. The next scheduled macro data point for the pair is the US jobs report on Friday, which will set the tone for the rate differential that keeps the carry trade intact.