Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Japan's manufacturing PMI hits 55.1, Brent tops $94.50 on Iran sanctions, the Riksbank holds, and US equities slide. Friday's flash PMI prints will show if the slowdown is a blip or a trend.
Only seven ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz Thursday, down from 14, as U.S.-Iran tensions disrupt global crude flows. WTI holds above $84, Brent near $93.
Bessent's buyback plan swaps duration risk for liquidity risk. Dealers absorb T-bills. Cash drains from repo. The 2019 plumbing failure is a template.
Treasury yields pushed back up to 4.704% after the debt buyback plan. The real test is whether this signaling effort can work without a change in the structural drivers.
China's vice finance minister said more fiscal support is coming but offered no timeline, disappointing markets. Industrial output and retail sales missed forecasts in July.
Core-core inflation hit 1.9% in July as services and goods prices firmed. The BoJ meets September 17-18 with a rate hike from 1.0% to 1.25% on the table.
Westpac Economics says the global rates structure will average higher, driven by AI data centre debt and persistent US deficits. Expect more government action to contain costs.
GfK consumer confidence hits -14, beating forecasts. Major purchases sub-index at highest since December 2021. GfK warns inflation is back on the rise.
A fresh pickup in input costs is squeezing margins even as Australia's private sector logs a third consecutive month of expansion.
New Zealand's trade balance swung to a NZ$-1.95 billion deficit in July from a NZ$23 million surplus. Imports rose while exports slipped on weaker dairy demand.
Bessent says buybacks could run larger than $4B to counter yield overshoot. Philly Fed index hits five-year high. Daly neutral, Musalem hawkish.
WTI oil hit new highs after Trump threatened Iran with economic isolation. Bessent said the plan would be unveiled Monday. China pushed back. The oil rally adds to inflation risks.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said the long-dated bond buyback could exceed $4 billion, part of a push to show yields don't reflect fundamentals. He also said the deficit has likely peaked and announced tougher Iran sanctions.
Brent crude broke above $94 and WTI through $87 after Trump's Iran threat, pushing global yields higher. DXY stays flat despite the US yield rebound, testing the Dollar's link to rates.
Nymex gas drops 2% as the EIA storage report tests whether Wednesday's short-covering rally can hold. Production at record levels and a growing surplus cap every bounce.
Canadian PPI surged 0.6% in July, sharply beating the -0.5% consensus forecast and reversing June's 1.4% decline. The data arrives weeks before the Bank of Canada's next rate decision, complicating the case for further easing as swaps price a 40% chance of a September cut.
BoJ policymakers meet Sept. 17-18 with markets pricing a likely hike. Japan 225 broke its trendline; a break of 65,215 opens 63,015 before the meeting.
The Treasury's move to double buyback operations for longer-dated notes drove yields lower and the dollar to new lows. Euro rose above $1.17, its highest since May.
The dollar fell to its lowest since May after the Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion. The move pulled yields lower and echoed Japan's intervention playbook.
UK inflation data and US Treasury buyback announcement push yields lower, reshape rate expectations for BoE and ECB. EUR/USD spikes, Riksbank decision next.
WTI crude holds a rounding bottom above $70, targeting $100 on a breakout above $87-$89 resistance. Brent shows a golden cross and strong momentum toward $120.
Russians pulled 24.4 bln euros from banks in seven months. Gazprombank lost 10.8% of deposits. The outflow exceeds the 2022 post-invasion wave as state asset seizures fuel panic.
Employment fell 15,800 in July, the first drop in months, pushing the jobless rate to its highest since late 2021. Full-time roles rose; part-time drove the decline.
Japan's July exports rose 23.2%, beating consensus. Weak yen and oil prices distort the headline: volumes only +5.2%, trade deficit widens to ¥634.5bn.
July Fed minutes show more officials favored joining the 3 votes for a 25bp hike. Subsequent soft data may have cooled that urgency ahead of September.
Japan's exports surged 23.2% in July, beating forecasts, as semiconductor equipment shipments jumped 49% on AI demand. But the Iran war pushed petroleum import costs up 87.8%.
The dollar fell 0.6% after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of a bond buyback program, a move markets read as a signal the administration will fight rising long-end yields.
Westpac expects a 15k rise in July employment while CBA forecasts flat. Both banks view June's 76.3k surge as an outlier, with implications for RBA policy and the Australian dollar.
Natural gas futures surged to a one-month high as Texas heat, a production dip, and near-record LNG exports tightened the balance. The 50-day moving average at $2.945 is the next resistance. Thursday's EIA storage report will test the rally's strength.
Treasury will double long-dated buybacks to at least $4 billion starting Sept. 9, pulling the 30-year yield from above 5.33% back below 5.20% and removing a key support for the greenback.