Oil surges 6% after Trump scraps Iran deal, risk-off sweeps markets

Geopolitics hijacked the session as President Trump, speaking in Ankara for the NATO summit, declared the ceasefire understanding with Iran dead. The move resets US-Iran relations to a standoff, and oil markets reacted instantly.

WTI crude jumped 6% to $74.70 a barrel. Brent crude rose 5.5% to $78.30. The jump came without a specific military trigger – just Trump's statement that the memorandum of understanding was over – but traders read it as a return to the risk premium that had faded since the initial deal.

Equities sold off across the board. European indices fell more than 2%. S&P 500 futures dropped 1%, Nasdaq futures lost 1.4%, extending losses from the prior session. Bonds also weakened: 10-year Treasury yields rose 5 basis points to 4.58%, testing the June high.

Precious metals slid alongside risk assets. Gold fell 1.4% to $4,050 an ounce. Silver dropped 2.3% to $58.65.

The dollar held steady to slightly firmer. [EUR/USD](/markets/pound-steady-after-boe-flags-ai-and-debt-risks) traded flat at 1.1410. USD/JPY edged up 0.2% to 162.40. NZD/USD was the outlier, up 0.4% to 0.5700, supported by a hawkish RBNZ decision earlier in the session.

Trump also used the Ankara appearance to criticise Spain's defence spending, threatening to cut trade ties with Madrid, and revived his interest in purchasing Greenland. Those remarks added to the uneasy tone but did not drive the macro move.

The Iran deal collapse shifts the focus back to crude supply risk and the dollar's safe-haven bid. The next catalyst is the NATO summit's formal communiqué, due later this week, and any follow-up from Tehran.