Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Japan's April core machinery orders surged 8.7% m/m, far above the 0.9% consensus, while May exports rose 17% y/y, beating forecasts. The data supports BOJ normalization.
Manufacturers' sentiment rose to +13 in June. Forward guidance flags a sharp drop in automaker confidence by September. Chips cushion BoJ tightening path; transport machinery faces supply chain risks.
The FOMC decision could break USD/JPY above 153 or send the dollar reeling. Traders watch for intervention as the MOF faces its toughest test yet.
Crude oil broke below the 100-day moving average and an uptrend line, now testing the 200-day and 200-week MA confluence near $74-$75.50. A break below opens the $70.49 support zone.
Natural gas cleared $3.25 resistance on Tuesday, reclaiming the 100-day moving average. A close above $3.25 confirms the breakout, with the 200-day MA near $3.43 as the next target.
The $2B World Bank package includes a $1B loan and a $1B IBRD guarantee, letting Argentina issue a AAA-enhanced bond to cut borrowing costs and rebuild reserves.
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% for the first time in 30 years. USD/JPY barely moved. Here is why the yen stayed weak and what would change that.
Binance's EU licence bid is set to be rejected within weeks, two sources said. The decision could trigger a crypto selloff and risk-off flows into the dollar and yen.
Goldman Sachs cut its Brent forecast to $78, citing faster Hormuz talks. The bank now sits on the bear side of the forward curve, with OPEC+ meeting June 2.
WTI broke below its 200-day EMA on Tuesday, sliding toward $70 as traders price a Friday U.S.-Iran peace signing. Brent targets a gap-fill near $75.
Economists polled by Reuters unanimously expect a third consecutive 25-bp Selic cut as inflation persists above target. The gradual easing keeps the carry trade intact but leaves the real sensitive to any signal of acceleration.
The largest supply shock in history failed to trigger a deep energy crisis. With inventories near 2003 lows and OPEC weakened, oil may return to $60-70 a barrel. Implications for Europe, currencies, and risk appetite.
Natural gas trades a tight range between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A trader with 20 years of experience sees any heat-wave rally as a shorting opportunity. The next test is $3.00 support.
Iranian tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifts its naval blockade, clearing the way for Friday's MoU signing and removing a key risk premium from crude.
The US-Iran nuclear deal enters a 60-day implementation phase with Hormuz reopening in focus. Oil-linked currencies face headwinds as crude supply risk fades. Here is the setup to track.
German ZEW sentiment surged from -10.2 to 10.5 in June, far above forecasts. ZEW President Achim Wambach attributed the jump to easing Iran tensions.
Oil tumbled 4% after peace hopes sparked a relief rally. BOJ hiked to 1%. Yen stayed above 160. UK CPI and the Fed decision are next. RBA held rates.
Italy's May CPI confirmed at 3.2% annual rate, driven by a jump in non-regulated energy prices. Core inflation ticked up to 1.7%. The print keeps the ECB's gradual easing path intact ahead of U.S. CPI.
BOJ hikes to 31-year high, yen falls below 150. Uchida signals more rate increases if energy shock from Iran war keeps inflation above 2% target.
Aussie dips 0.3% after RBA holds at 4.35% with mildly hawkish tone. ASX 200 flips positive. Rate path unchanged, focus shifts to July CPI and China stimulus.
BoJ raises rate to 1% for first time since 1995. Yen reaction subdued as focus turns to July projections and Ueda's return. QT pace adjusted from 2027.
BOJ raised rates to 1%, highest since 1995. Yen held above 160. Iran peace deal lifted regional sentiment. Goldman cut oil forecast. China retail sales fell 0.6%.
China's May retail sales fell 0.6% yoy, first drop since early 2022. Factory output beat expectations, investment weakened. Statistics bureau called supply-demand imbalance 'acute.'
Factory output beat forecasts at 4.5%; retail sales dropped 0.6% in May, the first decline since 2022. Fixed asset investment plunged more than double expectations. The domestic demand hole weighs on commodity currencies.
GBP/USD holds near 1.3450. The market waits on May inflation data and the Bank of England's rate decision. Key technical levels in focus at 1.3415 support and 1.3486 resistance.
China new-home prices fell 3.5% in May, matching April's decline. Municipal subsidies and provident fund loosening have not reversed the downturn, with used-home prices accelerating to -4.8%.
The rupee rose to its strongest in five weeks as US-Iran peace deal hopes sent oil lower, reducing India's import bill and shifting RBI policy calculus.
US and Iran agree to reopen Strait of Hormuz, sending WTI crude below $80 and lifting the S&P 500 2.3%. The deal removes a key inflation risk that had suppressed risk appetite.
Natural gas bounced from a fresh trend low of $3.02, forming a bullish outside day. The failed breakdown pattern suggests support holds and a move toward $3.25 resistance.
The dollar fell below 100 for a fourth day after the Iran peace deal, while palladium opened a bullish gap above 1300. Traders eye resistance at 1388-1430 as the next test for the metal's rally.