Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in June, matching forecasts. The control group excluding gasoline and autos advanced 0.5%, a sign of solid consumer spending.
Initial claims for jobless benefits fell to 208,000 last week, below 218,000 consensus. Continuing claims also declined, with the insured unemployment rate holding at 1.2%.
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index surged to 41.4 in July, triple the consensus estimate, pushing the dollar and yields higher and complicating rate-cut expectations.
BoE's Breeden says weak growth, labor slack allow rate hold despite oil spike. She would tighten if second-round effects appear.
Tehran has asked the Houthis to prepare to block tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb if the US strikes Iran's power network, per a report.
The Eurozone trade deficit widened to €7.8B in May, far above the €1.6B expected. Energy imports hit €30.3B, and January-May surplus plunged from €78.7B to €3.3B.
Brent near highs, dollar index falls as markets price peak inflation. Pound best G10 performer on Burnham's fiscal stance, BoE hike bets. USDJPY range-bound after Katayama GPIF move.
SNB minutes show policymakers see rising inflation risks from energy and geopolitics but see no need for tighter policy. The franc remains under watch for excessive appreciation.
Sterling cleared 1.3500, while the euro rose above 1.1460 as the dollar weakened after soft US CPI data. US jobless claims due at 8:30 a.m. ET will test the dollar's next move.
OPEC cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for the third straight month. WTI stalls below $80 resistance as natural gas holds between $2.85 and $2.94.
UK GDP rose 0.1% in May, beating the flat reading economists expected. Services output grew 0.3%, offsetting declines in production and construction. The next GDP print for June is due mid-August.
GBP/EUR holds near €1.1722 as traders await UK GDP data. Eurozone IP missed estimates but the euro held steady. The pair looks to UK growth for direction.
The ONS confirmed the Transformed Labour Force Survey timeline slips to 2027, with groundwork starting in August. Data quality issues persist, complicating BOE rate decisions.
June PPI fell 0.2% MoM on a 12% gasoline drop. Core producer prices stayed sticky; the Strait of Hormuz closure keeps supply risks alive. Yields retreated.
WTI and Brent hit multi-month highs as the U.S. blockades Iranian shipping. A break above $81 could send WTI toward $90, with Brent targeting $100.
Asian stocks fell on a chip rout; Japan and South Korea saw sidecars. BOK hiked 25bp to 2.75%. USD/KRW slipped to 2-month lows. Iran signal faded.
WTI crude retreated from $81.40 resistance, pulling the Canadian dollar down with it. Support at $76.50 and $74.50 are next; a break below $72.80 could open $70.
The Fed's Beige Book showed price growth slowing across all twelve districts through late June, reinforcing softer CPI and PPI readings even as rising oil costs test the outlook.
The dollar fell to a one-month low after a softer CPI print pushed traders to price in a higher chance of Fed rate cuts next year. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1050.
The rupee slipped 5 paise to 83.12 as safe-haven dollar demand hit Asian FX. The RBI intervened in spot markets to cap losses. Importers hedged at 83.10-83.15.
Natural gas triggered a bullish reversal from $2.85 support, but a resistance cluster near $3.12 will determine whether the broader downtrend resumes.
Iran's parliamentary speaker said the country must be ready to fight, highlighting the risk to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran tensions persist.
The dollar slipped after a softer-than-expected CPI print offset oil-driven gains. Sterling rose to $1.3504, the euro to $1.1437, as traders priced a higher chance of a September Fed hold. The next test is Friday's PPI.
Shabana Mahmood, a fiscally disciplined centrist Labour MP, is set to become UK Chancellor. Sterling tested 1.3485 on the news, with traders seeing reduced risk of expansionary fiscal policy.
CAD/INR tests 68.67 resistance as oil's rally boosts Canada's export receipts and widens India's import bill. BoC expected to hold rates at 2.25% on Wednesday.
BoC held rates at 2.25% as expected. The dovish "gradual" recovery language briefly nudged the loonie lower before it recovered to near C$1.3650. Next decision July 16.
WTI crude bounced from the $70 support level, while Brent rebounded from $75. Traders watch Middle East headlines for supply disruption risk. The 50-day EMA at $81.71 caps WTI.
ECB to hold rates in July as inflation surprises down, but analysts see a final 25bp hike in September, with focus on risk assessment and energy prices.
New York Fed President John Williams said inflation should ease to 3.25% by year-end and reach 2% by 2028, citing fading tariff and energy pressures.
The dollar fell after US core inflation missed forecasts, reversing safe-haven gains. EUR/USD rose to 1.1429, GBP/USD to 1.3442, as traders pared rate-hike bets.