
Iranian tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifts its naval blockade, clearing the way for Friday's MoU signing and removing a key risk premium from crude.
Iranian oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the United States lifted its naval blockade, the clearest sign yet that the two countries' Memorandum of Understanding is moving from paper to practice.
State-linked outlet ISNA, citing Deputy Foreign Minister officials, confirmed the blockade restricting Iranian maritime movement is being lifted. Al Jazeera separately reported that vessels were transiting the waterway and that Iranian tankers had successfully navigated the strait.
The tanker passages serve as a verification mechanism for the MoU, which is expected to be signed Friday after weeks of diplomacy. Both sides appear to be shifting from political commitments to operational implementation.
The blockade had effectively halted Iranian crude exports, tightening global supply and keeping a risk premium embedded in oil futures. With the strait reopening, that premium is fading. Brent crude and WTI both face downside pressure as the market prices in the return of Iranian barrels, even if the ramp-up is gradual.
For currency markets, the development is most directly felt in the Canadian dollar. Canada is a major oil exporter, and USD/CAD tends to move inversely with crude prices. A sustained drop in oil would weaken the loonie, though the pair's reaction Friday will depend on how much of the reopening the market had already discounted. The MoU signing itself could trigger a further leg lower in oil if it includes explicit commitments on export volumes.
Risk-on currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars may also benefit from the broader easing of geopolitical tensions. Safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc could give back some of the gains they accumulated during the blockade period.
The next major test is whether the reopening becomes routine or whether the strait remains a controlled corridor subject to Iranian tolls, inspections, or transit restrictions. Friday's MoU text will be the first concrete read on that question. Until then, the market is trading the path of least resistance: lower oil, higher risk appetite, and a watchful eye on Tehran's next move.
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